146
FXUS61 KBTV 172028
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE FOR THE EARLY WEEK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK,
THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT,
850MB JET BLOWING 55-65 KNOTS, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SURFACE GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH WITH LOCALIZED UP TO
60 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GREENS
THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT. THIS WILL BLOW AROUND ANY RECENTLY
FALLEN SNOW, MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING
ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TREND
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS EASTWARD AND LOOSENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUSTS WILL BE ABOUT 15- 30 MPH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, HIGHER
ON MOUNTAINTOPS. WHILE STILL QUITE BREEZY ON MOUNTAINTOPS FROM THE
NORTHWEST, TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW COME TO AN
END IN THE VALLEYS.
OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOUNTAIN SNOW WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND FROUDE NUMBERS FINALLY FALL BELOW 4. STILL
THOUGH, FLOW WILL REMAIN SUPERCRITICAL/UNBLOCKED, INDICATING RAPID
FLOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SCARCE AND WINDS WILL MAKE
MEASURING SNOW VERY DIFFICULT. LOOKING AT PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO IN FAR NORTHERN VERMONT, OTHERWISE UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, AND NEGLIGIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A DIVE FROM THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE -10 TO 10 F RANGE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS PULLING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE -25 TO -5 F RANGE. COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ALL ZONES EXCEPT ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AS WELL AS ZONES WITHIN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25
F COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES,
AND WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING OUTSIDE AND
KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND MOST WIND CHILLS
WILL BE 0 OR BELOW. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH
LOWS IN THE -5 TO 5 F RANGE AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW
TO 20 BELOW. EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW NIGHT THAN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS OUR SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND AT OR BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT, WIND CHILLS COULD STILL BE -5 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW. UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW TRACKING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. AS
IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL SMALL UPPER LOWS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS ON THURSDAY. WHILE A SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST, THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP STEER IT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO FINALLY BE CALM AS
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREENS. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT
APPEARS TO THE BE THE DRIVING FACTOR WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING
AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL SWING ITS WAY EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SPOTS EVEN UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
HOWEVER, MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK MEAGER. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO
FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE COLD PATTERN TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE STRONG WINDS, AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE, AND LOCALIZED REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
PERSISTING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. WEST WINDS
WILL BE PEAKING OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT, INCLUDING KRUT, BETWEEN
18Z AND 00Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER. MOST OTHER
TAF SITES WILL SEE STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS PEAK BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. ONCE THE SURFACE GUSTS WEAKEN,
AREAS OF LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A 50 KNOT WESTERLY JET MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KSLK, KMPV, KEFK, AND KRUT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST TAF SITES WILL BE DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SNOW
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT KEFK, KMPV,
AND KSLK. IN ADDITION, EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AREA-WIDE
THAT WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS, AND LOCALLY
DOWN TO IFR LEVELS WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>011-
016>018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ019>021.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-029-
030-035-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-031-
034.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DUELL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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