719
FXUS61 KBTV 180000
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE FOR THE EARLY WEEK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK,
THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 641 PM EST MONDAY...CURRENTLY, WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO
WIND DOWN. WE'RE SEEING VALUES START TO DRIFT NEAR OR BELOW 40
MPH. SEVERAL STATIONS ARE REPORTING BLOWING SNOW. SO CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CHANGEABLE ROAD CONDITIONS AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME TO CAREFULLY TRAVERSE THE REGION. UTILITY STATS INDICATE
THAT POWER OUTAGES ARE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE
PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, THERE IS A LAKE EFFECT BAND
EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTY. THIS COULD
CREEP NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DESCENDING SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO DESCEND A BIT CLOSER TO THE
GROUND, WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
NORTHWESTERN SLOPES. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.
EXCERPT OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A DIVE FROM THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE -10 TO 10 F
RANGE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS PULLING APPARENT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE -25 TO -5 F RANGE. COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE ALL ZONES
EXCEPT ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AS WELL AS ZONES WITHIN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25
F COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30
MINUTES, AND WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
OUTSIDE AND KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AND MOST WIND CHILLS WILL BE 0 OR BELOW. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH LOWS IN THE -5 TO 5 F RANGE AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW. EXTREMELY COLD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD TOMORROW NIGHT THAN THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS OUR SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND AT OR BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT, WIND CHILLS COULD STILL BE -5 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW. UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW TRACKING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. AS
IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL SMALL UPPER LOWS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS ON THURSDAY. WHILE A SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST, THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP STEER IT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO FINALLY BE CALM AS
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREENS. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT
APPEARS TO THE BE THE DRIVING FACTOR WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING
AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL SWING ITS WAY EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SPOTS EVEN UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
HOWEVER, MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK MEAGER. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO
FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE COLD PATTERN TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 4000-7000 FT AGL AT
THIS TIME AND VISIBILITY IS LOWEST AT KEFK AND KMPV AT 3-4SM,
OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO 2SM FOR BLOWING SNOW. KRUT HAS LIGHT SNOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20 TO 35 KNOTS WILL VERY SLOWLY ABATE TONIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KMPV, KSLK, AND KEFK TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS 1800-3500
FT AGL. HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY
TONIGHT COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS, OR IF VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
DUE TO SURFACE CONDITIONS BECOMING SUPERSATURATED WITH RESPECT
TO ICE PRODUCING DIAMOND DUST. FINALLY, MOUNTAIN WAVES DUE TO
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AGL AND LLWS POSSIBLE AT KSLK
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE WILL LIFT BACK UP TOWARDS
12Z WITH THE SUNRISE, AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
18 TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 18Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS
AGAIN FALLING TOWARDS MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>011-
016>018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ019>021.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-029-
030-035-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-031-
034.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/STORM
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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