534
FXUS61 KBTV 180308
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1008 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE FOR THE EARLY WEEK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK,
THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1004 PM EST MONDAY...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE TO THE GOING FORECAST TONIGHT. WIND HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN TRANSITIONED SIMPLY TO A WIND ADVISORY FROM THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARDS AND EXTENDED TO 5 AM. IT APPEARS THAT AS AN
INVERSION LAYER IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE GROUND WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING A BIT WARMER THAN HOURLY GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED, THAT WE ARE REMAINING SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXED WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE GROUND. GUSTS HAVE
SURGED BACK TOWARDS 40 TO 50 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 55
MPH. IT SHOULD ABATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES AND BLOWING
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. THE OTHER PIECE ALLUDED TO IS
INCREASING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AS COLD AIR IS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE IN. IT APPEARS WITH FRESH SNOW THAT MOS BASED
PRODUCTS ARE RADIATING US OUT TOO MUCH GIVEN THE WINDS IN PLACE.
DESPITE THIS, IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM SHOULD STILL MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
WIND CHILLS AROUND -20 F BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STAY WARM AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.
EXCERPT OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A DIVE FROM THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE -10 TO 10 F
RANGE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS PULLING APPARENT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE -25 TO -5 F RANGE. COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE ALL ZONES
EXCEPT ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AS WELL AS ZONES WITHIN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25
F COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30
MINUTES, AND WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
OUTSIDE AND KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AND MOST WIND CHILLS WILL BE 0 OR BELOW. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH LOWS IN THE -5 TO 5 F RANGE AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW. EXTREMELY COLD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD TOMORROW NIGHT THAN THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS OUR SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND AT OR BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT, WIND CHILLS COULD STILL BE -5 TO -15 DEGREES BELOW. UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW TRACKING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. AS
IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL SMALL UPPER LOWS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS ON THURSDAY. WHILE A SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST, THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP STEER IT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO FINALLY BE CALM AS
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREENS. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT
APPEARS TO THE BE THE DRIVING FACTOR WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING
AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL SWING ITS WAY EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SPOTS EVEN UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
HOWEVER, MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK MEAGER. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO
FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE COLD PATTERN TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 4000-7000 FT AGL AT
THIS TIME AND VISIBILITY IS LOWEST AT KEFK AND KMPV AT 3-4SM,
OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO 2SM FOR BLOWING SNOW. KRUT HAS LIGHT SNOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20 TO 35 KNOTS WILL VERY SLOWLY ABATE TONIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KMPV, KSLK, AND KEFK TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS 1800-3500
FT AGL. HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY
TONIGHT COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS, OR IF VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED
DUE TO SURFACE CONDITIONS BECOMING SUPERSATURATED WITH RESPECT
TO ICE PRODUCING DIAMOND DUST. FINALLY, MOUNTAIN WAVES DUE TO
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AGL AND LLWS POSSIBLE AT KSLK
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE WILL LIFT BACK UP TOWARDS
12Z WITH THE SUNRISE, AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
18 TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 18Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS
AGAIN FALLING TOWARDS MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
006>008-016>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
010-016>021.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/STORM
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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