306
FXUS61 KBTV 180531
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL DOMINATE FOR THE EARLY WEEK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LIGHTER
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
LATE WEEK, THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1229 AM EST TUESDAY...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENTS
HERE AND THERE TO THE GOING FORECAST TONIGHT. WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN TRANSITIONED SIMPLY TO A WIND ADVISORY FROM THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARDS AND EXTENDED TO 5 AM. IT APPEARS THAT AS AN
INVERSION LAYER IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE GROUND WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING A BIT WARMER THAN HOURLY GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED, THAT WE ARE REMAINING SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXED WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE GROUND. GUSTS HAVE
SURGED BACK TOWARDS 40 TO 50 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 55
MPH. IT SHOULD ABATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES AND BLOWING
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. THE OTHER PIECE ALLUDED TO IS
INCREASING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AS COLD AIR IS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE IN. IT APPEARS WITH FRESH SNOW THAT MOS BASED
PRODUCTS ARE RADIATING US OUT TOO MUCH GIVEN THE WINDS IN
PLACE. DESPITE THIS, IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM SHOULD STILL MEET COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND -20 F BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STAY WARM AND HAVE A GOOD
NIGHT.
EXCERPT OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A DIVE FROM THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE -10 TO 10 F
RANGE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS PULLING APPARENT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE -25 TO -5 F RANGE. COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE ALL ZONES
EXCEPT ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AS WELL AS ZONES WITHIN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25
F COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30
MINUTES, AND WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
OUTSIDE AND KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AND MOST WIND CHILLS WILL BE 0 OR BELOW. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH LOWS IN THE -5 TO 5 F RANGE AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW. EXTREMELY COLD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD TOMORROW NIGHT THAN THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS OUR SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND AT OR BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. WHILE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WIND CHILLS COULD STILL BE -5 TO -15 DEGREES
BELOW. UPPER- LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. AS IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL SMALL
UPPER LOWS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS ON THURSDAY. WHILE A
SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST, THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HELP STEER IT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA
THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY REMAIN COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 327 PM EST MONDAY...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO FINALLY BE
CALM AS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
PLACE. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT APPEARS TO THE BE THE DRIVING FACTOR WITH
LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS
WILL SWING ITS WAY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 20S IN SPOTS EVEN UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, HOWEVER, MOISTURE
LEVELS LOOK MEAGER. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO FINALLY BREAK
OUT OF THE COLD PATTERN TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY, EXCEPT FOR EFK WHERE WE HAVE SOME IFR LIGHT SNOW.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO
35 KNOTS WILL VERY SLOWLY ABATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARDS 1800-3500 FT AGL. HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS, OR IF
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SURFACE CONDITIONS BECOMING
SUPERSATURATED WITH RESPECT TO ICE PRODUCING DIAMOND DUST.
FINALLY, MOUNTAIN WAVES DUE TO WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT 2000
FT AGL AND LLWS POSSIBLE AT KSLK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z.
MOISTURE WILL LIFT BACK UP TOWARDS 12Z WITH THE SUNRISE, AND
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 18 TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN
18Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS AGAIN FALLING TOWARDS MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-016>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-016>021.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-
027-029>031-034-087.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/NEILES/STORM
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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