826
FXUS61 KBTV 181756
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1239 PM EST TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVES TRENDING DOWNWIND DUE TO HIGH FROUDE NUMBERS.
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ASIDE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED
BRISK WINDS, THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OUT
OF THE WNW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE HIGH PEAKS. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT TILL 5 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL BE PRETTY COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. WILL
HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE ALSO AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
ACROSS OUR AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, TOPPING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL FINALLY SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WE'LL EVEN SEE CLOUD COVER BREAK
UP A BIT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. EVEN WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS ABOVE
ZERO, A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AT LEAST AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
BRISK.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. THE
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE, SO THERE
LOOKS TO ONLY BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT MOST, AND THE DOWNSLOPE
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING. THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
AREAS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH. LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO, BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...THE RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH ONLY A POTENTIAL CLIPPER OR TWO TO BREAK IT UP. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND PROFILES DRY OUT DURING THE DAY, THEY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF. SKIES LOOK TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WITH CALM WINDS, BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED GOING
FORWARD. CURRENTLY ONLY THINKING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST AREAS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY, BEFORE THE FIRST CLIPPER MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE DYNAMICS LOOK
MARGINALLY BETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY, IT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AGAIN, SO ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. A
SECOND CLIPPER LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH AT THE START OF THE WEEK,
AND WHILE THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS ON THE
ONSET. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK AND EFK. BLOWING SNOW
HAS BEEN LEADING TO PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, AT TIMES
TO 2SM, AT EFK WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z. AT SLK,
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE MODERATE TURBULENCE ALOFT
AROUND 5000 FT AGL.. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 08Z ACROSS ALL
SITES. NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE NUMBERS OF 1-2 SHOULD LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT SLK BEGINNING AT 20Z, AND
BECOMING MORE PREVAILING BY 22Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY 05Z WEDNESDAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE, CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TOWARDS 2500-3500 FT AGL., WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT BTV AND MSS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IF FLOW BECOMES MORE BLOCKED BETWEEN 23-03Z. UTILIZED
PROB30 GROUPS TO EXPRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
LOW AT SLK AND EFK THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SLK BECOMING SCATTERED
BY 14Z, AND EFK REMAINING PRIMARILY MVFR.
SITES MPV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MTR OUTAGE, AND
THUS AMENDMENTS SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18TH. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ019>021.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DANZIG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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