399
FXUS61 KBTV 182327
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE HEADING INTO
TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY WITH
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO START NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 607 PM EST TUESDAY...RADAR RETURNS FROM A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH ARE STARTING TO DESCEND ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW WEBCAMS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERNMOST STRETCHES OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM HAVE SOME SNOW FLYING AROUND. WE COULD SEE
THIS RAMP UP WHILE THIS TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
COMING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
STUBBORN AREAS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL GUSTING TO NEAR
40, BUT MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ABATE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
GRADUALLY RELAX ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH MINIMAL UPDATES NEEDED. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!
EXCERPT OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET, THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TONIGHT UP TO 15 MPH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.
SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE SUMMITS AND DOWNWIND
LOCATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS FROUDE NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 1-2.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH 0.5-1 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MOUNTAIN WAVES SHOULD ENVELOPE MOST OF THE AREA IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH. EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, ALLOWING FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL DIP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, WITH LOCALLY LOWER
VALUES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 25 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RELAX BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REMAIN
CHILLY WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. QUIET WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
AT OR NEAR ZERO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 352 PM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY,
BEGINNING ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF AN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWER REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL RESULT FROM
NEAR SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW AND MODEST MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED OUT
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL
STORM PASSING TO OUR EAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY LOOKS TO INCREASE CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS A BIT WITH NOTABLE 700
MILLIBAR DECREASES IN DEW POINT DEPRESSION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFT IS LARGELY OROGRAPHIC AND
VERY TERRAIN-BLOCKED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT,
WHEN CLOUDS MAY BE SO SHALLOW AS TO PRODUCE SOME UNDERCAST
CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HAVE BOOSTED QPF/SNOW SLIGHTLY
RELATIVE TO MODEL BLEND WHERE LOW FROUDE NUMBERS SUGGEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE BACKED UP WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. TEMPERATURES LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR FLUFFY SNOW, BUT SHALLOW LIFT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES NEARER TO THE SURFACE DOES COUNTERACT OTHERWISE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS, ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE. SO FOR NOW HAVE SNOW
RATIOS NEAR 20:1, YIELDING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
DAYBREAK OF A COATING TO 1 INCH FOR MOST SPOTS UPWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH AMOUNTS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 1 INCH IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS IN FRANKLIN AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MODEST AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
RISE OVERNIGHT, WITH RESPONDING COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE COOLING AT THE SURFACE GIVEN MIXING AND CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES THEREFORE ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STEADY THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS, OR ROUGHLY
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE LOWS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY'S HIGHS, WHICH WILL BE LIMITED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF
MIXING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 352 PM EST TUESDAY...CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING OR EVEN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW. OUR AIR
MASS GENERALLY WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AND 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES LARGELY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS
WEEKEND, SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED LATE SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRANSITION
INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER SETUP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TILT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCES ARE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FAVORED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IF HIGHER
RESOLUTION, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THIS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO, EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEKEND.
LARGEST UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPERATURE IS MONDAY LOWS. THE FORECAST VALUES
RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS, WITH A PATTERN CONSISTENT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WHICH SOME OF THE COLDER LOWS
ARE EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. BASICALLY, IT COMES DOWN TO THE
TIMING OF WHEN HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF THE HIGH PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY QUITE COLD.
IF IT MOVES THROUGH FASTER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
RISING DURING THE NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY LOW.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST, A FAVORABLE SOUTH WIND PATTERN FOR VALLEY CHANNELING WILL
LIKELY EMERGE WITH A THAWING TAKING PLACE IN LOW ELEVATIONS. WOULD
EXPECT LARGELY LOW DEW POINTS TO PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW MELT, BUT
SUN ANGLE AND WIND WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME MELT. BY TUESDAY,
WE DO HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS, BUT GENERALLY THINK SNOW
STILL WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME PASSING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME PROB30 GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES WHERE SHOWERS
ARE MOST LIKELY, INCLUDING KMSS, KEFK, AND KBTV. SOME BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS,
BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY AND IMPACTS WILL OVERALL
BE LIMITED. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR LEVEL, WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF GUSTY WINDS, GUSTS WILL FINALLY SLACKEN OFF
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST UNDER 10
KNOTS FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG/HAYNES
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...DUELL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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