236
FXUS61 KBTV 190835
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WILL START
TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGIN ON THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS. SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL
LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY, AND EVEN FURTHER BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. WILL ALSO HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. BLOCKED FLOW
MEANS THE WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS,
THOUGH FROUDE NUMBERS LOOK TO DROP BELOW 0.5 FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FRIDAY MORNING, SO THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DROP INTO LOWER
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ONLY
LASTS TO AROUND 12Z, SO THE TIME FOR STEADIER ACCUMULATIONS IS
RELATIVELY LOW. THEREFORE, ONLY THINKING A FEW INCHES IN THE
FAVORED AREAS AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WHILE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEY SHOULD
BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
EARLIER THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THAT WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS. DROPPING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SINK THE DGZ TO THE SURFACE IN MOST AREAS,
SO THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LESS EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
WOULD PREVENT DENDRITE FORMATION AND LEAD TO SMALLER FLAKES LIKE
COLUMNS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, THOUGH NOTHING ATYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY,
LIKELY BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOO, THOUGH THEY MAY
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE TERRAIN. A MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER
DIGS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL BRING A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE,
ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT. RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY, AND WITH A STRONGER CLIPPER MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST, STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO
SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET BULBING TO OCCUR AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN, SO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW, THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS ON THE ONSET. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW, IT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE.
GFS/EC/CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT, EVEN FOR THE TERRAIN.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY COOL BACK
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR LEVEL, WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
THEN WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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