805
FXUS61 KBTV 191206
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 656 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. MAINLY ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING, THEN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WILL START TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BEGIN ON THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL
LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY, AND EVEN FURTHER BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. WILL ALSO HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. BLOCKED FLOW
MEANS THE WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS,
THOUGH FROUDE NUMBERS LOOK TO DROP BELOW 0.5 FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FRIDAY MORNING, SO THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DROP INTO LOWER
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ONLY
LASTS TO AROUND 12Z, SO THE TIME FOR STEADIER ACCUMULATIONS IS
RELATIVELY LOW. THEREFORE, ONLY THINKING A FEW INCHES IN THE
FAVORED AREAS AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WHILE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEY SHOULD
BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
EARLIER THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THAT WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS. DROPPING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SINK THE DGZ TO THE SURFACE IN MOST AREAS,
SO THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LESS EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
WOULD PREVENT DENDRITE FORMATION AND LEAD TO SMALLER FLAKES LIKE
COLUMNS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, THOUGH NOTHING ATYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY,
LIKELY BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOO, THOUGH THEY MAY
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE TERRAIN. A MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER
DIGS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL BRING A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE,
ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT. RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY, AND WITH A STRONGER CLIPPER MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST, STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO
SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET BULBING TO OCCUR AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN, SO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW, THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS ON THE ONSET. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW, IT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE.
GFS/EC/CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT, EVEN FOR THE TERRAIN.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY COOL BACK
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR LEVEL, WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT EFK WITH LIGHT
SNOW, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY ABOUT 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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