888
FXUS61 KBTV 191803
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 103 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE ON
A COLD BUT SUNNY DAY. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE SARANAC
LAKE/ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS REACHED 10 DEGREES, SO THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SEEMS TO BE SAFE. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER WERE MADE WITH THE UPDATE AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PROVEN
POOR WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. EVEN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON ANY SMALL DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VERMONT. THIS SKY COVER BODES
WELL FOR A COLD NIGHT AS UPSTREAM CLOUDS DO NOT SEEM TO BE
AIMED AT OUR REGION; ONLY MITIGATING FACTORS SEEM TO BE IN SITU
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHTENING WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WILL START TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BEGIN ON THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL
LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY, AND EVEN FURTHER BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. WILL ALSO HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. BLOCKED FLOW
MEANS THE WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS,
THOUGH FROUDE NUMBERS LOOK TO DROP BELOW 0.5 FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FRIDAY MORNING, SO THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DROP INTO LOWER
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ONLY
LASTS TO AROUND 12Z, SO THE TIME FOR STEADIER ACCUMULATIONS IS
RELATIVELY LOW. THEREFORE, ONLY THINKING A FEW INCHES IN THE
FAVORED AREAS AND LITTLE ELSEWHERE. WHILE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEY SHOULD
BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
EARLIER THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THAT WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS. DROPPING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SINK THE DGZ TO THE SURFACE IN MOST AREAS,
SO THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LESS EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
WOULD PREVENT DENDRITE FORMATION AND LEAD TO SMALLER FLAKES LIKE
COLUMNS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, THOUGH NOTHING ATYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 334 AM EST WEDNESDAY...RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY,
LIKELY BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOO, THOUGH THEY MAY
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE TERRAIN. A MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER
DIGS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL BRING A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE,
ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT. RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY, AND WITH A STRONGER CLIPPER MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST, STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO
SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. LOW DEW POINTS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET BULBING TO OCCUR AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN, SO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW, THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS ON THE ONSET. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW, IT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE.
GFS/EC/CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT, EVEN FOR THE TERRAIN.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY COOL BACK
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRATUS AND EVEN FLURRIES. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN
INCLUDE PROB30 AT THIS TIME, BUT BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS, MSS AND EFK, LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THESE MVFR CONDITIONS, AND PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL IS A BIT HIGHER FOR AT LEAST A
BROKEN DECK AT MSS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, AND PERHAPS AT SLK.
WINDS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEY ARE CURRENTLY CALM OR UNDER 5 KNOTS AT
BTV AND EFK, NEAR 5 KNOTS AT PBG OUT OF THE EAST AND OUT OF THE
NORTH AT RUT, AND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AT SLK/MSS/MPV OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, OR NORTHWEST AT MPV. GENERALLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 00Z, AND AFTER 12Z TREND NORTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
VERMONT SITES WHILE REMAINING LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MSS AND SLK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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