096
FXUS61 KBTV 192044
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING A LIGHT FRESHENING OF
SNOW PACK TO MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, THE NEXT MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 344 PM EST WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW, THEN THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT.
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE SIT IN A ZONE OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OTTAWA, ONTARIO. A LARGER UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST IS ADVANCING EASTWARD, REACHING
OHIO BY DAYBREAK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
MOMENT WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK, BUT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IN OUR AREA IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN GIVEN INACCURATE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THE MOMENT AND THIN
LAYER OF MOISTURE. RELATEDLY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE
GENERALLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY 925 MILLIBAR FLOW RESULTING IN
SOME LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES, PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. A COATING OF
FRESH SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS. OVER TIME, FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST IS ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
ONE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND
MOISTURE GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AND TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. AS A
RESULT, NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY TOMORROW NIGHT, FROM 7 PM TO 7 AM, AND
IT WILL BE A FLUFFY SNOW WITH RATES MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 0.1 TO
0.25"/HOUR. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS PROBABLY IN THE RANGE CONSISTENT
WITH BLOCKED FLOW AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS, THE NAM-3KM DEPICTION
OF NEAR SURFACE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOKS REASONABLE. IT SHOWS
PRECIPITATION FILLING IN ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN VERMONT AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST OF THE HIGH PEAKS TOMORROW EVENING, PEAKING
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN VERMONT. TOWARDS DAYBREAK, PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASING SLIGHTLY, BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES.
AS SUCH, THE NORTHERN GREENS UPSLOPE AREAS ARE WHERE GREATER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD; SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2" TOTAL ARE INDICATED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY STEADY IN THE TEENS DURING THIS LIGHT SNOW.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT SOUTH
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY, NEW
YORK.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. MINIMAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OUT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 0.5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES W-E.
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE MILD,
COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S, AND
MID-UPPER TEENS IN ELSEWHERE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN COLD
WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS REGION WIDE. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW
FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SATURDAY FEATURES MUCH OF THE
SAME FROM FRIDAY BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWARD.
DRY AIR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW SATURDAY. CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW COULD LEAD TO A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW
DURING THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO ALLOW FOR MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF MONDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS MONDAY. A MORE DEVELOPED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO A RAIN
SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS. ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TOWARDS 40 DEGREES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHEREAS THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW A COOLER SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S.
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. REGARDLESS, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL BELOW
FREEZING, COULD SEE SOME WET-BULBING DURING THE PRECIPITATION WHICH
COULD LIMIT ANY RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER. THE CLIPPER WILL GRADUALLY
DEPART TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE
SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRATUS AND EVEN FLURRIES. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN
INCLUDE PROB30 AT THIS TIME, BUT BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS, MSS AND EFK, LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THESE MVFR CONDITIONS, AND PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL IS A BIT HIGHER FOR AT LEAST A
BROKEN DECK AT MSS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, AND PERHAPS AT SLK.
WINDS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEY ARE CURRENTLY CALM OR UNDER 5 KNOTS AT
BTV AND EFK, NEAR 5 KNOTS AT PBG OUT OF THE EAST AND OUT OF THE
NORTH AT RUT, AND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AT SLK/MSS/MPV OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, OR NORTHWEST AT MPV. GENERALLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 00Z, AND AFTER 12Z TREND NORTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
VERMONT SITES WHILE REMAINING LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MSS AND SLK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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