923
FXUS61 KBTV 200914
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING, THEN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY, BRINGING A LIGHT
FRESHENING OF SNOW PACK TO MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, THE
NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 415 AM EST THURSDAY...TODAY WILL START OUT WITH QUIET
WEATHER, CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION, BUT BRING CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST IS ABSORBED BY THE LARGER ONE AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE GIVEN
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AND TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT,
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BE FLUFFY WITH CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST AND WEST FACING SLOPES WILL DO THE BEST
WITH THIS QUICK LIGHT SNOW FEATURE AS THE FLOW WILL BE BLOCKED
ACCORDING TO THE FROUDE NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE JUST A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 AM EST THURSDAY...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND TAPER OFF QUICKLY, AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A MOSTLY DRY DAY,
AND SOME AREAS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND IT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH A FEW ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WHEN THE STRONGER DYNAMIC MOVE THROUGH. AGAIN, TOTALS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND THE MOST FAVORED AREAS MAY ONLY BE ABLE
TO SNEAK OUT AN INCH OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. WITHOUT ANY STRONG SYSTEMS
AROUND, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 307 AM EST THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE BUT RELATIVELY
UNIMPACTFUL STRETCH CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES BUT NO LARGE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS WELL, PARTICULARLY
BECAUSE OF WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WARMTH IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY STYING BELOW 40 AND LOWS LOOKING TO GO
BACK BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THE INITIAL WARM-ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SNOW, BUT AS THE REGION ENTERS THE WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR THE BROAD
VALLEYS TO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX IN. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM INITIAL SUB- FREEZING DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP LOWER
SNOW LEVELS, BUT NOT ENOUGH. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE, BUT THESE
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS WELL. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ONLY LOOK TO BE A
FEW INCHES IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO THE MAIN
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW EVERYWHERE WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM TRIES TO ENTER
THE REGION LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STARTING OFF WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z, WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, TRENDING NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
AT MOST SITES AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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