753
FXUS61 KBTV 201501
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING, THEN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY, BRINGING A LIGHT
FRESHENING OF SNOW PACK TO MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, THE
NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1001 AM EST THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA AND HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS. THAT
BEING SAID, CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON OUR REGION FROM
BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. WHERE LOWER ALTITUDE CLOUDS FORM
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLURRIES, BUT HAVE BACKED
OFF POPS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES, WHILE STILL COLD, ARE
QUICKLY RECOVERING FROM THE FRIGID LOWS DUE TO THE STRONG
SUNSHINE, WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT THAT HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO WARM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
TODAY WILL START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER, CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR REGION, BUT BRING CHANCES FOR
NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST IS
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER ONE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, HELPING TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AND
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT, NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BE
FLUFFY WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST AND WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO THE BEST WITH THIS QUICK LIGHT SNOW
FEATURE AS THE FLOW WILL BE BLOCKED ACCORDING TO THE FROUDE
NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE
JUST A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 AM EST THURSDAY...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND TAPER OFF QUICKLY, AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A MOSTLY DRY DAY,
AND SOME AREAS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND IT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH A FEW ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WHEN THE STRONGER DYNAMIC MOVE THROUGH. AGAIN, TOTALS
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND THE MOST FAVORED AREAS MAY ONLY BE ABLE
TO SNEAK OUT AN INCH OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. WITHOUT ANY STRONG SYSTEMS
AROUND, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 307 AM EST THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE BUT RELATIVELY
UNIMPACTFUL STRETCH CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES BUT NO LARGE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS WELL, PARTICULARLY
BECAUSE OF WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WARMTH IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY STYING BELOW 40 AND LOWS LOOKING TO GO
BACK BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THE INITIAL WARM-ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SNOW, BUT AS THE REGION ENTERS THE WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR THE BROAD
VALLEYS TO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX IN. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM INITIAL SUB- FREEZING DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP LOWER
SNOW LEVELS, BUT NOT ENOUGH. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE, BUT THESE
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS WELL. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ONLY LOOK TO BE A
FEW INCHES IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, SO THE MAIN
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW EVERYWHERE WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM TRIES TO ENTER
THE REGION LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 13Z,
CURRENTLY AFFECTING MSS AND RUT. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PROB30 GROUPS,
BUT ALSO PREVAILING AS WELL. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KNOTS AT MOST SITES TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: MVFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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