832
FXUS61 KBTV 210220
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
920 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY, BRINGING A LIGHT
FRESHENING OF SNOW PACK TO MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MANY DAYS IN THE COMING WEEK HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. A WARMING
TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS NEAR
NORMAL WITH SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 916 PM EST THURSDAY...SFC OBS INDICATE VERY LIGHT SNOW
WITH VIS BTWN 5-8SM HAS DEVELOP ACRS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY AND VT
THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL RADAR RETURNS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST
ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATION. PRECIP IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY GIVEN THE LIMITED DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND SFC DWPTS STILL HOVERING NEAR 5F. EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE PER COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE
GOES-16 IR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WL ROTATE INTO OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND COVERAGE WL INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL BY
10 TO 20% TO MATCH CRNT TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE REST OF FCST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
OUR ANTICIPATED LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK IS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO ZONES OF
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THE MORE POTENT ONE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION, BUT THE ONE TO OUR NORTH WILL
PINWHEEL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, FLOW 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL
BECOME MORE CROSS-MOUNTAIN (WESTERLY) RELATIVE TO THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS, SETTING UP RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL RELATIVE OTHER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE DEPTH GENERALLY LOOKS DEEPEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK, WHEN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY
PEAK. PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREENS STILL LOOK OUTSTANDING DURING
THIS PERIOD; FROUDE NUMBERS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 WITH 700 MILLIBAR
MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE 70%, THE AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL BE
SATURATED WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS, AND THE AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ABOUT 320
DEGREES. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
HERE, WITH A COATING TO 2 INCHES FARTHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GENERALLY SEEING NO EVIDENCE THAT FLOW BECOMES UNBLOCKED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS MIXING DEPTHS STAY LIMITED TO ABOUT
925 MILLIBARS IN THE VALLEYS. AS SUCH, SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
LARGELY STAY UPWIND OF THE ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAIN
RIDGELINES. THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE WESTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT ASIDE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HEIGHT RISES, SOME BLUE
SKIES SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS, WITH THE WIDE VALLEYS MILDER WITH LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THERE WILL
STILL BE A PERSISTENT GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.
WEAKEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN WESTERN AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, AND HAVE TRENDED THE COLDEST CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA WITH
MORE SUB-ZERO LOWS. DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, FORECAST LOWS MAY
NEED ADJUSTMENT BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 PM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RIDGING BRINGING MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IN GENERAL, A
LIGHT DUSTING CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 307 PM EST THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WITH A MESSY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH
THE REGION, BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING PRECIPITATION ARRIVING MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE PRECIPITATION AT THE
ONSET WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE BROADER VALLEYS TO SEE A MIX
OF RAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CIGS HAVE QUICKLY TRENDED TOWARD MVFR AT
MANY OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH SOME INTERVALS
OF IFR VIS LIKELY AT BTV/SLK AND EFK BTWN 02Z-07Z TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP. IN ADDITION, THINKING CIGS
AT SLK APPROACH IFR CRITERIA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PREVAIL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, GIVEN THE LOW LCL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ARE NORTH/NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 KNOTS, WITH A FEW
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY TREND FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR BY 18Z WITH IMPROVING VIS TO
MOSTLY VFR BY 15Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,
CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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