084
FXUS61 KBTV 211445
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MANY DAYS
IN THE COMING WEEK HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL
WITH SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 945 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
REFINED SKY COVER TO BETTER CAPTURE CLOUD COVER IN WHICH THERE
IS ABUNDANT CLEARING IN THE LEE OF THE ADIRONDACK HIGH PEAKS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND CLOUD SKIES ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY
FLURRIES, AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUE IN AREAS WHERE
POPS ARE GREATER THAN 15%. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. THIS SNOW HAS VERY LOW LIQUID CONTENT, SUPER FLUFFY.
SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE HAS ROTATED INTO OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW IS NOT VERY EVIDENT ON RADAR, BUT WITH
SATURATION IN THE DGZ AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING OVERHEAD
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HEIGHT RISES,
SOME BLUE SKIES POSSIBLE WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS, WITH THE
WIDE VALLEYS MILDER WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THERE WILL STILL BE A PERSISTENT GRADIENT
FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. WE MAY ALSO HAVE STUBBORN
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 339 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND IT WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS, THOUGH A FEW WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AGAIN
SO THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH, BUT THE MOISTURE
LOOKS TO LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING IN THE FAVORED AREAS FOR OVER 24 HOURS. THE DGZ LOOKS TO
BE AROUND THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE, SO THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MUCH LESS EFFICIENT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST FAVORED TERRAIN BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE WELL UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO AROUND
OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BROAD VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STAY
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 339 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BEFORE IT ARRIVES,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES ON MONDAY.
LIGHT WARM-AIR ADVECTION SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY, THOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING. DEW POINTS WILL
STILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AT THE ONSET, SO WET BULBING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIKELY DOWNSLOPE THE BROAD VALLEYS, SO THE BURLINGTON
AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY OVERCOME THE TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING OFF
MONDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE REGION ENTERS THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. BY THIS POINT
DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS OVER THE
REGION, BUT WITHOUT COLD AIR IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW AGAIN. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT SOME OF THE BROAD VALLEYS MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST, BUT
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL MISS, IT WILL HELP ENHANCE THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE FINALLY GO BELOW
FREEZING REGION-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL
A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS, REGARDING BOTH STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH. THE ONLY LIKELIHOOD IS THAT BEHIND THIS, A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING ALMOST ALL
TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM IFR UP TO VFR. CEILINGS
ARE MAINLY MVFR AND VFR. THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES AS WELL AROUND 20 KTS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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