596
FXUS61 KBTV 220548
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE,
ACTIVE AND MILDER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1248 AM EST SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN
SOME OF THE TYPICAL SPOTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE THERE HAVE
NOT BEEN ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY END
LATER IN THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 0 IN PARTS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WINDS HAVE DIED AND WHERE IT HAS CLEARED
OUT, BUT ELSEWHERE THEY ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND FEW EDITS WERE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RARE EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS SETTING UP
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS VERY ISOLATED SPOTS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT SEEING A LIGHT
COATING OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TONIGHT IS A
BIT MESSY WITH A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THAT COULD HELP MAINTAIN
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR FLURRIES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SKIES CLEAR
TODAY MAY ONLY SEE INTERMITTENT, PARTIAL CLOUD COVER.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS
TODAY, FEATURING 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT 850 MILLIBARS, WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AND OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS. AS A RESULT, HAVE NOTED SOME OF THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF AIR TEMPERATURE AND
NOT WIND CHILL, MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MEANWHILE, LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK MAY MAINTAIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST
WIND THAT COULD REDUCE THE COOLING, MAKING TEMPERATURES MORE
UNCERTAIN. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE IDEA THAT A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DOES DEVELOP IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR ZERO RATHER
THAN DECLINE SLOWLY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN INFLUX OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE, SUPPORTING CLOUDY SKIES. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE NON-ZERO IN THESE AREAS, BUT TOO LOW TO
INDICATE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. FARTHER EAST, MAINLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
TOMORROW NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION TO STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES, THE PERSISTENCE OF UPSLOPE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
SHORT, SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGELY UNDER 1 INCH. THE
ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND HELPS BOOST
PRECIPITATION WITH LAKE ONTARIO ENHANCEMENT, AS IT REMAINS
MOSTLY OPEN WATER EVEN THIS LATE INTO THE WINTER. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY BULLISH ON QPF WITH LOCALLY GREATER
THAN 0.1" OF LIQUID IN THE TYPICAL SNOW BELT AREA OF SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. SNOWFALL HERE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD
BE UPWARDS OF 2". AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SCOOTS TO OUR EAST
OVERNIGHT, FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY QUICKLY WITH A SHORT
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE THAT WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO
BLOSSOM IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT. TOWARDS MORNING
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH SNOW SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PERHAPS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE STRONGLY
MODULATED BY THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WITH STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 324 PM EST FRIDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND NEAR THE GROUND DGZS WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
HOWEVER, WITH VALUES NEAR AN INCH SUNDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN GREENS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK SUNDAY 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD HELP ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDING OFF
ONTARIO SLIDE INTO OUR REGION BRIEFLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
ADIRONDACKS NEAR ROUTE NY-3. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER- LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARMER
AIR IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. COLDER AIR COULD HOLD ON LONGER
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN GREENS UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN NORTHERN
QUEBEC WILL SIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RISE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW. MODELS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES SHOW A MUCH MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR AREAS, AS WELL AS MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FROM STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. THE GEFS TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER MEANING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. REGARDLESS, HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL BELOW FREEZING, WET-BULBING SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW ON MONDAY. THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENT ANY DIURNAL COOLING
MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSTANT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 324 PM EST FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE INITIAL
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DEVELOPED ON TUESDAY.
WHILE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOWS
CENTER, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE
POSITIONING. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM 850-700MB SHOULD PROMOTE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN A SLIGHT WARM TREND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 40 REMAIN LESS THAN 30% WITH
HIGHER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 35 AND
40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE CHANCES OF SEEING SOLELY RAIN HAVE TRENDED
UPWARDS IN THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW, WITH THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INITIALLY AND THEN
WET-BULBING SHOULD SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY SNOW THEREAFTER.
OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SWITCH TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR FREEZING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN
THE VALLEYS AND RETURN TO THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF TRACK
SOLUTIONS AND SYSTEM STRENGTH. BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK,
A PATTERN CHANGE CONDUCIVE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS LOOK LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE
NEST 24 HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AT SLK OR
RUT BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY DAYBREAK. A LOWER CLOUD DECK
WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR AT A FEW
TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS NO SNOW EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AT MSS AND SLK AFTER 00Z AND THEY
WILL LIKLEY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE VERMONT TERMIANLS
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,
LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: IFR. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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