690
FXUS61 KBTV 221154
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHERE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE, ACTIVE AND
MILDER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 647 AM EST SATURDAY... THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO EAST, BUT PROGRESS HAS SLOWED AS
THE CLEARING REACHED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THESE CLOUDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAKE
ONTARIO ENHANCED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REACH PARTS NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATER THIS MORNING, WHILE VERMONT SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL OFF WHERE IT IS CLEAR AND
CALM, WITH EDWARDS, NY REACHING -17 AND SLK REACHING -16. BTV
DROPPED FROM 15 TO 7 WITHIN AROUND 15 MINUTES AS WINDS CALMED
AND WENT SLIGHTLY EASTERLY, BUT IT HAS NOT GONE MUCH FARTHER
SINCE. OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND FEW EDITS
WERE MADE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT, BUT THEY ARE NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, AND THIS
PROCESS IS BEGINNING IN VERMONT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
FALL APART FROM WEST TO EAST AND THAT WILL PUT AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER SKIES CLEARED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING QUICKLY IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
HAVE DIED, WITH SARANAC LAKE DOWN TO -9 AND EDWARDS DOWN TO -14.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS KEPT WINDS AND IS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SKIES CLEAR OVER VERMONT, TEMPERATURES
IN THE PROTECTED HOLLOWS SHOULD FALL FAST, WHILE THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ELEVATED ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLEAR TODAY, THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND FILTER THE SUNSHINE A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN MOST
PLACES.
A WEAK CLIPPER DROPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND
IT WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS, THOUGH THEY SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP DOWNSLOPE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,
THOUGH IT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNBLOCKED DURING THE
EVENT, SO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. A COUPLE INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE WELL UNDER AN INCH.
SLIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. A
DECENT SIZED DGZ SHOULD ALLOW FOR DENDRITE FORMATION, THOUGH THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS FLUFFY AND LIGHT AS THE SNOW WAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BROAD
VALLEYS, WHILE STAYING BELOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THEY WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AND CHANNELED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WINDS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO BE PRETTY STRONG ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 333 AM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ANY LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY. LOWER ELEVATIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR MUCH ADDITIONAL STUFF, BUT SUMMIT LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PICK UP A FEW EXTRA TENTHS OF SNOW. COOLEST CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT WHICH WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, BUT AREAS WEST OF THE
GREENS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTH WINDS WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES
INDICATIVE OF WARMING. COLD HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS, BUT MOST SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS
TO MID 20S.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS A SURFACE LOW AROUND 982MB MOVES ALONG THE HUDSON BAY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE JUMPED QUITE A BIT WARMER THIS CYCLE WITH SOME
LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 40S, BUT DID NOT WANT TO MAKE SUCH A LARGE
LEAP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR NOW, WE HAVE INDICATED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY OBSERVE SEVERAL SITES CLIMB ABOVE 40. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS, ALLOWING FOR MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND CAUSING SOME TERRAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS A RESULT, WE CAN ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF SUMMITS, AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
0.10" OR LESS DUE TO LACKING LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 333 AM EST SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER, BUT RELATIVELY LOW
IMPACT, WILL CONTINUE. ON TUESDAY, A SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPAWN IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE TAIL-END OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS A UPPER STRONG VORT ROUNDS THE BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, FAST CHANNELED FLOW WILL LIKELY SHEAR THE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL NOT HAVE FILTERED OUT WARM AIR
FROM MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THROUGH, AND SO A MIX OF RAIN OR
SNOW IS LIKELY WITH ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF WARMTH
AT GROUND LEVEL. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH ANY
RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY QUICKLY GETS REVERSES AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. THERE'S NO SHORTAGE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH IN THE FAST UPPER FLOW, AND IT'S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
TIMING AS A RESULT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, NEAR
SURFACE WARMTH OF MID 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL PLACE ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW, BUT LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BELOW 0.10".
THEN, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT APPEAR UNLIKELY TO PHASE. SO YET MORE VALLEY RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH OVERALL LITTLE ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE'S A BREAK IN ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIT MPV AND EFK WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND CONDITIONS
THERE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME VFR. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN TO
SLK AND MSS SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING THOUGH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH MSS AND SLK BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, BEFORE REACHING THE VERMONT TERMINALS LATER IN THE
NIGHT. BTV, PBG AND RUT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS, IF ANYTHING THOUGH. AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS,
PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. SLK COULD REACH
AROUND 20 KTS AND MSS COULD REACH AROUND 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME LATER IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
THE MOUNT ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER, SERVING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE
EARLIEST DATE OF RESTORATION IS NOW TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25TH
FOLLOWING A DELAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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