319
FXUS61 KBTV 260223
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, AND SLIGHTLY
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER A
COUPLE OF DRIER DAYS TO END THE WEEK, A PATTERN SHIFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND IN WHICH MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY
AND WET PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1014 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING, MAINLY TIED
TO HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS POINT. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOSE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, WILL SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FURTHER DECREASE
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FILLING UP
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT 500 MILLIBARS, THE
CENTER OF THE LOW IS STILL BACK OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN; THE
EASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER AS IT
PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN EXITS INTO
EASTERN MAINE TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS HELPING TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF HIT AND MISS STRONGER
SHOWER CORES IN THE VALLEYS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING AND THE LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE, WE HAVE SEEN LITTLE
IMPACT WITH WET SNOWFALL, WITH PERHAPS A FEW VERY HIGH
ELEVATION ROADS ABOVE 2000 FEET SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE
SHOULD A LULL IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE CORE OF THE TROUGH AND WE LOSE DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH COOLING
LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOULD OFFSET THIS EFFECT SOMEWHAT, SUCH
THAT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
FOR TOMORROW, THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY BECOME
STATIONARY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THIS SETUP
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE INSTABILITY, WITH HREF DATA SUGGESTING AN
AVERAGE OF 75 TO 150 J/KG, TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. NOTING THAT DEW POINTS WERE A BIT TOO LOW TODAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN MUCH OF THIS GUIDANCE, THINK THAT THE HRRR
DEPICTION, WITH CAPE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE, LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO CROSS
THE REGION, THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED WHICH WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY SUCH THAT POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS GREATER, ALTHOUGH STILL STRONGLY ELEVATIONALLY
DEPENDENT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WITH DEEPLY MIXED
CONDITIONS. A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON DURING
THE DAY ABOVE 1500 FEET ELEVATION.
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WHEN BEST BALANCE OF COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR AND
DEEP MOISTURE OVERLAP WITH BLOCKED FLOW. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE WILL RETURN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 321 PM EDT TUESDAY...BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIGS
DOWN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY PLACES DURING THE EVENT, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING MEAN EVERYWHERE SHOULD SEE SNOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE, BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE BROAD VALLEYS LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TOUGH TO COME BY.
REGARDLESS, LIQUID AMOUNTS OF THE SNOW WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH AT MOST, SO IT WILL BE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE. THE MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 321 PM EDT TUESDAY...A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW TRYING TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION RUNS INTO AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THESE ELEMENTS WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO BE
STATIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS EXACT POSITIONING. IT LIKELY BUILDS NORTH A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SINKING BACK SOUTH A LITTLE ON SATURDAY BEFORE RISING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW WHILE SOUTH OF IT WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOISTURE RIDES ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND COULD PUT DOWN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH LOOK TO SEE A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MESS.
EVEN AS THE SURFACE FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALOFT AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR RISING. THEREFORE, EVEN IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO STAY BELOW OR FALL BELOW FREEZING, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION AXIS LOOKS TO BE VERY NARROW AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SEE A DRY SLOT. AS A STRONGER LOW BUILDS TO THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER,
A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND
BRINGS AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WEATHER
LOOKS TO STAY AROUND EARLY TO MID WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SFC VIS DROPPING BTWN 1 AND 3 MILES IN THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES OF SLK/EFK AND MPV
WHERE BRIEF 10 TO 15 MINUTES OF IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN OUR VALLEY TAF SITES
OF PBG/BTV/RUT WITH MVFR CIGS AT MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ON WEDS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES WITH SHARP AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN
SFC VIS INTO IFR/LIFR (0.50SM TO 2SM) LIKELY ALONG WITH A QUICK
COAT TO AN INCH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT EFK/SLK AND MPV. A FEW
SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BUT LOCALIZED STRONGER NEAR PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN, CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY
RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN,
LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...DUELL/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...TABER
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