969
FXUS61 KBTV 260742
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS LEADING TO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DRIER DAYS TO END THE WEEK, A PATTERN
SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND IN WHICH MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY
AND WET PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 342 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRAUPEL
TO MIX IN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SEE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A PERIOD OF
BRIEF RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN, BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIETER
WEATHER IN VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE DRIER AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH SOME
BLUE SKIES AND SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 321 PM EDT TUESDAY...BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIGS
DOWN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY PLACES DURING THE EVENT, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING MEAN EVERYWHERE SHOULD SEE SNOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE, BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE BROAD VALLEYS LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TOUGH TO COME BY.
REGARDLESS, LIQUID AMOUNTS OF THE SNOW WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH AT MOST, SO IT WILL BE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE. THE MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 321 PM EDT TUESDAY...A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW TRYING TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION RUNS INTO AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THESE ELEMENTS WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO BE
STATIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS EXACT POSITIONING. IT LIKELY BUILDS NORTH A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SINKING BACK SOUTH A LITTLE ON SATURDAY BEFORE RISING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW WHILE SOUTH OF IT WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOISTURE RIDES ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND COULD PUT DOWN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH LOOK TO SEE A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MESS.
EVEN AS THE SURFACE FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALOFT AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR RISING. THEREFORE, EVEN IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO STAY BELOW OR FALL BELOW FREEZING, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION AXIS LOOKS TO BE VERY NARROW AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SEE A DRY SLOT. AS A STRONGER LOW BUILDS TO THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER,
A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND
BRINGS AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WEATHER
LOOKS TO STAY AROUND EARLY TO MID WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AND KSLK AND
OCCASIONALLY SOME OF THE OTHER MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOWARD SUNSET WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BUT LOCALIZED STRONGER NEAR PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN, CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY
RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY
RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...KREMER
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