220
FXUS61 KBTV 260808
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS LEADING TO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DRIER DAYS TO END THE WEEK, A PATTERN
SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND IN WHICH MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY
AND WET PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 408 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRAUPEL
TO MIX IN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SEE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A PERIOD OF
BRIEF RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN, BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIETER
WEATHER IN VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE DRIER AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH SOME
BLUE SKIES AND SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 408 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000FT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MEAGER WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS FROM
AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH UP TO A TENTH OR SO OF AN INCH. SHOWER
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW PELLET
SHOWERS AS THE BASE OF THE SHALLOW TROUGH SWINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE CREST LATE
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 408 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TRACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. SYSTEM
TRAJECTORY WILL FAVOR A CLIPPER TYPE PATH, BUT STRENGTH WILL BE
INCREASING AS IT IMPINGES UPON PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. MODELS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOR A TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SETUP WILL PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WITH COLD AIR
PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH AND DROP
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH. AS SUCH
AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850MB, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WARM NOSE IS FAVORED. THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON DEPTH/EXTENT OF THE WARM LAYER BETWEEN
MODEL SUITES, BUT THE IDEA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXISTS IN THEM
ALL. ALSO, THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. INITIAL
QPF ESTIMATES ARE FOR OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS PATTERN. WHAT IS UNCLEAR
IS HOW MUCH ICE/SNOW/RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH. FOR NOW, PLAN ON AT LEAST SOME SLICK
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LIKELY TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN.
MODELS SUPPORT A PATTERN SHIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS MAY BE A BIT PREMATURE, BUT
UPSTREAM HIGH MOVEMENT DOES SUGGEST THIS SHIFT IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH NOT SHARP
TRANSITIONS, JUST OSCILLATING STATIONARY FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW/MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AND KSLK AND
OCCASIONALLY SOME OF THE OTHER MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOWARD SUNSET WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BUT LOCALIZED STRONGER NEAR PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN, CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY
RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY
RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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