392
FXUS61 KBTV 261448
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS LEADING TO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DRIER DAYS TO END THE WEEK, A PATTERN
SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND IN WHICH MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY
AND WET PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1048 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS,
WITH MESONET STATIONS SHOWING 0.04"-0.05" OF LIQUID IN 15
MINUTES SUGGESTING UP TO 2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES, IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS HOUR AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GLACIATED CLOUD TOPS WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WHICH SHOULD ENSURE
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AREA WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE WET SNOW WILL PROBABLY NOT ACCUMULATE
ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL
PRODUCE SOME SUDDENLY LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THESE SHOWERS FOR MOTORISTS. OTHER THAN MODIFYING POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS, NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO MIX IN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY,
ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN GENERAL, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH A
DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A PERIOD OF
BRIEF RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN, BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIETER
WEATHER IN VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE DRIER AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH SOME
BLUE SKIES AND SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 408 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000FT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MEAGER WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS FROM
AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH UP TO A TENTH OR SO OF AN INCH. SHOWER
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW PELLET
SHOWERS AS THE BASE OF THE SHALLOW TROUGH SWINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE CREST LATE
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 408 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TRACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. SYSTEM
TRAJECTORY WILL FAVOR A CLIPPER TYPE PATH, BUT STRENGTH WILL BE
INCREASING AS IT IMPINGES UPON PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. MODELS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOR A TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SETUP WILL PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WITH COLD AIR
PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH AND DROP
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH. AS SUCH
AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850MB, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WARM NOSE IS FAVORED. THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON DEPTH/EXTENT OF THE WARM LAYER BETWEEN
MODEL SUITES, BUT THE IDEA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXISTS IN THEM
ALL. ALSO, THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. INITIAL
QPF ESTIMATES ARE FOR OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS PATTERN. WHAT IS UNCLEAR
IS HOW MUCH ICE/SNOW/RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH. FOR NOW, PLAN ON AT LEAST SOME SLICK
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LIKELY TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN.
MODELS SUPPORT A PATTERN SHIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS MAY BE A BIT PREMATURE, BUT
UPSTREAM HIGH MOVEMENT DOES SUGGEST THIS SHIFT IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH NOT SHARP
TRANSITIONS, JUST OSCILLATING STATIONARY FRONT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW/MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AND KSLK AND
OCCASIONALLY SOME OF THE OTHER MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ON AND
OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE TOWARD SUNSET WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BUT LOCALIZED STRONGER NEAR PRECIPITATION. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD TRENDS
TOWARDS VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN, CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
CHANCE SN, CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR. LIKELY RA, LIKELY SN, CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY
RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
SN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...KREMER
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