568
FXUS61 KBTV 270530
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY, AND ASIDE FROM SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT, DRIER WEATHER WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER,
A MUCH STORMIER PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED, FEATURING A WIDE VARIETY
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
TRENDING TOWARDS RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS
SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW WE HAVE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DOTTING THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
SUCH THAT MOST PRECIPITATION IS NOT ACCUMULATING ON ROADS. THAT
BEING SAID, WITH MORE INSTABILITY TODAY, LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SLUSHY
COATING OF SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR 1000 FEET, WHILE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATION. AT
A LARGE SCALE LEVEL, THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THESE SHOWERS IS TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATER INSTABILITY IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN VERMONT WHERE
CLOUD TOPS ARE COLDER, WHILE LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN MUCH
OF NEW YORK. AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD, THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS STEADIER AND
LIGHTER VERSUS THE INTENSE ONES. SKIES WILL TREND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT, ASIDE FROM PERIODIC CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WHERE MINOR UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE
FAVORED AS THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE RESATURATES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES MAY BE MODULATED BY CONTINUED MIXING
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COOLING 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES; SO WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND ADVECTION LEAD TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL NOT GET TOO COLD.
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN, WE SHOULD SEE SKIES
TREND COMPLETELY CLEAR. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, IT HAS BEEN A SUNNY DAY WITH MODERATELY LOW
HUMIDITY. LOCAL DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME PARTICULARLY
DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACK HIGH PEAKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
WHERE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY DAY FOR OUR REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS EVENING. THIS FRONT LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG, BUT IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE WITH A
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS SUCH,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW NIGHT ARE HIGH
BUT IT WILL NOT SNOW FOR VERY LONG AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. YET
AGAIN, TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS, SUCH THAT SNOW WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 1500 FEET
ELEVATION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TIMING DOES SUGGEST
BETTER CHANCES OF ROADS SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION, HOWEVER, SO
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACTS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW TRYING TO MOVE NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION RUNS INTO AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA, PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE REGION. A LOW PASSES ALONG
THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BEHAVING SOMEWHAT
LIKE A MOISTURE-RICH CLIPPER. ON THE FRONT END, THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW THAT WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WET BULBING WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY DESPITE HIGHS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
FRIDAY, AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE. AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
SLEET/ICE THEN TO RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WARM AIR MAY NEVER MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IT MAY NEVER SEE A PRECIPITATION TRANSITION. HOWEVER,
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND SO THERE
WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD HIGH SNOW TOTALS. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SWATH LOOKS TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, AND THE AMOUNT WILL
DEPEND ON IF THIS BAND IS STATIONARY OR MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A GFS TYPE SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE STATIONARY BAND WHILE A
EURO TYPE SOLUTION MOVES IT SLIGHTLY, SO THE GFS HAS LARGER SNOW
TOTALS BUT IN A SMALLER AREA. THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
BEHAVE THE SAME WAY, AND A FEW AREAS COULD SEE OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS SEEING THE MOST SNOW, BUT THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENTS AND RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATIONS.
BEHIND THIS LOW, THERE WILL BE SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL DRAIN SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS, TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE. THIS LOOKS TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BACK TO
FREEZING RAIN, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF, SO ICE ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE TRENDING DOWN. THE PRECIPITATION AXIS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHTER AND VERY NARROW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION AND TRACKS IT UP THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY, THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER. HEAVILY FAVORED THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS WITH THE FORECAST, BUT COLDER SOLUTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY SCOUR
OUT THE COLD AIR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY
LINGER EAST OF THE GREENS AND IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE LONGEST. AT THE ONSET, ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
MASSENA BELOW FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EVERYWHERE SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING BY SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT, UNLESS A GFS TYPE
SOLUTION VERIFIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS HEADING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND KEFK WITH ONGOING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE, SKIES SHOULD
TREND CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE SN, CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
LIKELY FZRA, CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
FZRA, LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
LIKELY FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
FZRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...KREMER
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