326
FXUS61 KBTV 271340
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER SHOWERS COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING, SUNNY SKIES AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WITH A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 936 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD REACH EASTERN AREAS
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT, THE SNOW
THAT FELL LAST NIGHT WILL QUICKLY MELT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD TREND CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH PLENTY OF BLUE
SKIES AND SUN EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
STREAM IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE SEASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE BE LACKING MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT. AS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
ONLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE EXACT DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, WE'RE ANTICIPATING SOME AREAS COULD
SEE A FEW TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET, WHILE OTHERS
COULD GET AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IS LIKELY, SO ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
CHECK BACK REGULARLY FOR UPDATED FORECASTS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH, A SERIES OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE DIRECTLY ACROSS OR PERHAPS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH PWATS APPROACHING OR
EVEN EXCEEDING 1 INCH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE (IVT VALUES APPROACH 99TH PERCENTILE) POINT TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE, WARM AIR
WILL RIDE UP OVER COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE, HENCE WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY START OUT AS SNOW, IT WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT'S
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL SET UP, SO EXACT
PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS OF EACH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO SEE
WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE FRONT LOOKS TO WAVER BACK SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT, PERHAPS GIVING NORTHERN AREAS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL START TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD, AND AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS
THAT ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREENS AND THE
HIGHER SUMMITS WILL TURN OVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IT'S DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT AS JUST 25 OR 50 MILES DIFFERENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES.
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WE'RE INDICATING 2 TO 5+ INCHES OF
SNOW/SLEET IN MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS, WITH 2 INCHES OR
LESS IN THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET AT
LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCUMULATION, WITH SOME AREAS PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE, THIS WELL COULD
CHANGE, SO PLEASE DON'T FOCUS ON EXACT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. ANYONE
WITH PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, WHETHER
THEY'RE IN AREAS WITH MORE SNOW OR AREAS WITH MORE ICE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREENS, WHICH
MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY THOUGH, SO EVEN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID,
THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND BRINING
COLDER TEMPERATURES. NOTE THERE'S A VERY WIDE RANGE IN THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY, WITH SOME 20+ DEGREES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE. HAVE STAYED WITH
THE NBM FOR NOW, WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F.
REGARDLESS, THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY, WITH SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK. MID WEEK SHOULD BE DRY
THOUGH AS WE SEE A BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT KMPV AND KEFK WHICH SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH
WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25
KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z 006Z AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE SN, DEFINITE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
CHANCE FZRA, CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
FZRA, CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KREMER
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