878
FXUS61 KBTV 271955
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WITH A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE WILL A PERIOD OF SNOW, WITH THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS IN NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME FREEZING
RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 354 PM EDT THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A FEW OF THEM COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY, NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIKLEY CAUSE SOME OF THEM TO FALL AS VIRGA AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND CAUSE THEM TO
MELT WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER, THE AREAS THAT SEE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD SEE A COATING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH. RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TOMORROW AND THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. MOST
OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE HIGH SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH THEM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 354 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SHARP FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LOW WILL PASS ALONG IT INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BEHAVING SOMEWHAT LIKE A MOISTURE-RICH CLIPPER. ON THE
FRONT END, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. WET BULBING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY DESPITE
HIGHS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY, AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS SNOW IN MOST PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET/ICE THEN
TO RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AIR
MAY NEVER MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM,
AND IT MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW THERE. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND, SO THERE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD HIGH SNOW TOTALS. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SWATH LOOKS TO
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNT WILL DEPEND ON IF
THIS BAND IS STATIONARY OR MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST. RIGHT
NOW, THE HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT,
WHERE 3- 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS. THERE IS STILL HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS BAND
WILL SET UP AND HOW FAR NORTH THE ICE/RAIN MAKES IT. THE MOST
FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE ALONG A RELATIVELY
NARROW ZONE, JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL LOW, SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES. DESPITE THIS, TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE, AND THIS LOOKS TO CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BACK
TO FREEZING RAIN, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DRY PERIOD FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE, THERE COULD BE
SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE THERE IS NO STEADY
PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 354 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WITH THEIR TYPICAL NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND IN
EASTERN VERMONT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING, WHILE PLAIN RAIN
MAINLY FALLS ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION INTO A WARMER PERIOD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY LOWERS. UNTIL IT GETS DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
STUBBORN COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL PROMOTE CHANCES OF FREEZING
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THANKFULLY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY,
AVERAGING ABOUT 0.2" TO 0.4" OF AN INCH. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO ABOUT
0.1 TO 0.25" OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SUB-FREEZING. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO SOLAR HEATING, EXPECT
MOST OF THE IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES WITH LIMITED
TRAVEL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD A BIT, LIKELY DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
IN PRECIPITATION SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
MASSIVE FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE THEN ARE IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE, FINALLY STUBBORN SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL MIX OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SUBSTANTIALLY AREAWIDE. THE BIG WARM UP,
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY TOP 60, WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOWER 50S, WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIKELY IN VERMONT'S LOWER VALLEYS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL ULTIMATELY
CONTROL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE REGION WHERE THE DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST IN SOME CASES IS MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AT THIS TIME.
SHARP RISES IN AREA WATERWAYS WILL RESULT FROM A MIX OF SNOWMELT AND
MODERATE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE UNLIKELY TO
FLOOD AND EVEN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
ACTION STAGE, BUT WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. RELATIVELY HEAVY
WINTER PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
SNOWMELT, WHICH LEADS TO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODELED CONTRIBUTIONS
TO RUNOFF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOVING INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER DYNAMIC, STRONGER
VARIETY SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS STORM
TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR
ALL ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE DURATION OF ANY SNOW FOR A
GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PROVIDE ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPT OF A
SHORT-LIVED POSSIBLE MVFR POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY IN
THE 06Z TO 12Z PERIOD. TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS. CHANCES OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE TOO LOW TO INDICATE AS CEILINGS MAY NOT
APPRECIABLY LOWER IN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR.
CHANGEABLE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED. THROUGH 00Z,
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY IN NEW YORK AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TRENDING WESTERLY IN VERMONT WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING NEAR 20 KNOTS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
MIXING WILL DECREASE BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE GREATLY,
RESULTING IN SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY AT
MSS AND SLK. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z,
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS AGAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN, DEFINITE
FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
CHANCE FZRA, CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
FZRA, CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MVFR. DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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