098
FXUS61 KBTV 291103
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WIDESPREAD MESSY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND PLAIN RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE WINTRY MIX
TO TREND TOWARD RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
SHELTERED HOLLOWS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FREEZING RAIN THE LONGEST, LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH SHOWERS AND SHARP RIVER RISES, BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 657 AM EDT SATURDAY...TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS OUR
COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. SNOW HAS INDEED BEEN PRETTY
HEAVY THIS MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, THE TRANSITION LINE HAS
BEEN VERY SHARP, WITH PLACES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY GETTING MORE
ICE AND/OR EVEN RAIN AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. HAVE
TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE
OVERPERFORMED SO FAR, AND ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO TRY TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST TRENDS. WHILE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, ALREADY
SEEING THE AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW NARROW AND START TO SHUNT
SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED THROUGH THE DAY AS TRENDS CONTINUE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. REGARDLESS, IF YOU MUST TRAVEL TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, PLEASE USE CAUTION AND EXPECT TRAVEL
TO BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS OUR MESSY SYSTEM
IS JUST STARTING TO GET GOING AT THIS EARLY HOUR. EXPECT TRAVEL
WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AS SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN MAKE
ROADS SLIPPERY.
STEADY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
SOME FAIRLY HEFTY RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. THIS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS RIDING ALONG A BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND
MODEL PROGS INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK OR SO. THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND
THE WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY STRETCHES FROM TUPPER LAKE
WESTWARD TOWARD OGDENSBURG; NORTH OF THIS LINE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS AND KBTV, WHILE NY
MESONET STATIONS SUCH AS EDWARDS, PHILADELPHIA, AND WELLESLEY ISLAND
HAVE BEEN REPORTING FREEZING RAIN. AS THIS TRANSITION ZONE SPREADS
EASTWARD, EXPECT THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF SLEET ALSO MIXING IN
WITH THE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. OVERALL, STILL EXPECT AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OGDENSBURG TO CHARLOTTE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
REMAIN FREEZING RAIN, OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IN PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN
ST LAWRENCE, ESSEX, AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.
ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD BY
MID MORNING, ACTIVITY WILL WANE A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS SOUTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS, BUT AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD MAY
WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 30S, ESPECIALLY IF THERE'S A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY HELP IN CLEARING SOME TREATED ROADWAYS FOR A
TIME BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE IN
THE DAY. AS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTH/SOUTH DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN, WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLEET
MIXING IN ALONG THE DIVIDING LINE. HOWEVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
HENCE THE TRANSITION LINE WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, WITH ABOVE
FREEZING CONDITIONS SPREADING UP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SO WHILE THE WINTRY MIX TURNS OVER TO
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN, THE FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO PLAIN RAIN IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY 8 AM OR SO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT. AS USUAL, THE COLD AIR WILL BE
TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
DRAINAGE WIND, ALONG WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREENS.
SO THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO AT LEAST POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY, EVEN AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WARMS INTO THE MID 30S TO MID/UPPER 40S. THEREFORE, WHILE THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM SUNDAY,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY ARE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IN SOME
OF THE WARMER SPOTS.
OVERALL, WE STILL ANTICIPATE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN
AREAS (LOCALLY HIGHER IN SPOTS) WHERE THEY'RE ABLE TO SEE MORE SNOW
AND LESS OF A WINTRY MIX. EVEN THESE AREAS WILL STILL GET UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION, THOUGH, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE LESS SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIXING, GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES, BUT MORE ICE
SINCE THEY'LL TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN SOONER. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THERE,
WITH LOCALLY UPWARDS AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT THE
LEAST, THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AND LIKELY DIFFICULT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AS WE SEE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES.
ICE AND SNOW LOADING ON BRANCHES MAY RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES AS
WELL. ANYONE WITH PLANS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS ADVISED TO USE
CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT, SO ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN, LINGERING LONGEST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AS THE LOW MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION, THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER
FORWARD PROGRESS, KEEPING US WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HENCE EXPECT HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60F AREAWIDE. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCH, ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL SHOW SHARP RISES FROM THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH MELT RUNOFF FROM
THE RECENT SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. SOME WATERWAYS MAY APPROACH
BANKFUL, BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FULL DETAILS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BUT NO MEANINGFUL SNOW IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO NEAR FREEZING AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COOL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND
LOW 30S. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, MOVING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND COOL AND
QUIET WEATHER MOVING IN BEHIND IT, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRUT WHICH IS STILL
VFR. PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IS CURRENTLY SNOW WITH
RAIN EXPECTED AT KRUT. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY 1000 TO 2500 FT
AGL WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR CLOUDS, BUT VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SNOWFALL HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3SM TO 1/2SM WITHIN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW. HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH A TRANSITION TO
SNPL AND FZRA TOWARDS TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING
THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, LIKELY
FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOCAL RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL, CURRENT CREST FORECASTS
INDICATE RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE IN REACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ARE THE TYPICAL CULPRITS INCLUDING THE AUSABLE,
OTTER CREEK AND MAD. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
HIGHER FLOOD STAGES ARE QUITE LOW, SO WIDESPREAD, HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN TYPICAL NUISANCE LOWLAND FLOODING AREAS ON THESE
AND OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VERMONT SHOULD MONITOR CURRENT AND FUTURE FORECASTS RELATED TO
THIS EVENT.
CLIMATE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY
RECORDS, AS INDICATED BELOW.
DATE KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
03-29 0.82|1888 0.71|1954 0.67|2020 0.84|2020 0.71|2020 0.62|1932
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-
004-005-009>011-016-018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-006>008-
017.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>030-
034-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ031.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
HYDROLOGY...JMG/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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