373
FXUS61 KBTV 292305
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, ADDING
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WHILE ICY CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND LIGHTER WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ON SUNDAY. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
SHELTERED HOLLOWS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ONTO
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
WARMER WITH SOME SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDER, AND SHARP RIVER
RISES, THEN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FOR
TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 703 PM EDT SATURDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE FIRST
EVENING UPDATE. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
PRECIPITATION DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES. THIS
WILL ALL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. VERY TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES. FOR
NOW LET THE FORECAST RIDE AS IS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A LONG DURATION "WINTER" STORM CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
THAT HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD, PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION WILL RESUME IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 0.5" OF
FLAT ICE (0.2" RADIAL) THIS MORNING. AS SUCH, WE WENT AHEAD TO
ISSUE AN ICE STORM WARNING THROUGH ALL OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES -
SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT TONIGHT, LARGE VARIATIONS IN CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER
SHORT DISTANCES DRIVEN BY TOPOGRAPHY. INCREASINGLY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT, DRIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN VERMONT SUCH THAT IT IS FORCED
UP AT THE GREEN MOUNTAINS - THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY COOL
AIR IN THE MID- SLOPE AREAS, ESPECIALLY PRONOUNCED IN ADDISON
AND RUTLAND COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE JUST ONE OF MANY TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS THAT WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF
HIGH- RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM3 CONTINUE TO DO BETTER THAN ANY
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND TODAY AND WERE USED THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
WHICH ARE INTENDED TO BEST CAPTURE AREAS THAT WILL STUBBORNLY
STICK TO FREEZING RAIN. BASED ON TIMING OF STEADY PRECIPITATION
AT NIGHT, HAVE SOME CONCERN OF VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREAFTER, MOST IMPACTS DUE TO ICE SHOULD BE
RELATED TO UTILITIES AND TREE DAMAGE.
STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
TOMORROW, AND WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE TO OUR SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, SOME ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS COULD STILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IN LOCALIZED
AREAS, BUT LARGELY AFTER DARK TOMORROW THE THREAT OF ICY
CONDITIONS WILL BE DIMINISHING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL BE SPENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DURING
THE DAYTIME. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONTINUING TO NOTE SOME BRIEF INSTABILITY MONDAY
MORNING, SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY MONDAY MORNING,
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ALIGNED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED AND BRIEFLY
MORE INTENSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH OF THE NEWER
SNOW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO MELT. THIS SNOWMELT, ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL QPF, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAPID RISES IN AREA RIVERS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, MOST RIVERS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL, HOWEVER THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAKE THE EAST BRANCH AUSABLE
RIVER AT AU SABLE FORKS AND THE MAD RIVER AT MORETOWN BRIEFLY
INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TURNING TO BRIEF SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEING IN CONTROL. DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY, WILL SEE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE, RESULTING IN A CHILLY
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL START OFF BREEZY
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING, THEN SLACKEN AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL
WITH FAVOURABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE HEDGED
TOWARDS THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS NIGHT, RESULTING IN
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY ON RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL US
AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY
DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH PTYPE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OUT OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO
NAIL DOWN THERMAL PROFILES, BUT MORE DETAILS WILL EMERGE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY CEILINGS ASIDE FROM ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CURRENTLY SEEING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT ALSO IFR AT
BTV AND LIFR PERSISTING AT RUT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS 00Z,
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL START FILLING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN AT RUT, INITIALLY SNOW BRIEFLY AT
MPV, BTV, AND PBG BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN, ALL FREEZING
RAIN AT MSS AND SLK, AND SNOW AT EFK CHANGING TO RAIN BY AROUND
15Z. EXCEPT FOR EFK, ALL SITES WILL BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BY
08Z.
NORTHERLY, OR NORTHEASTERLY AT MSS AND SLK, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, MAINLY 5 TO 12 KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ENOUGH THAT LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT SLK,
ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AT
MOST SITES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOCAL RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL, CURRENT CREST FORECASTS
INDICATE RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE IN REACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ARE THE TYPICAL CULPRITS, INCLUDING OTTER CREEK, AND
THE MAD AND AUSABLE RIVERS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
CREST AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING HIGHER FLOOD STAGES ARE QUITE LOW, SO WIDESPREAD,
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN TYPICAL NUISANCE LOWLAND FLOODING AREAS ON THESE
AND OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VERMONT SHOULD MONITOR CURRENT AND FUTURE FORECASTS RELATED TO
THIS EVENT.
CLIMATE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY
RECORDS, AS INDICATED BELOW. AS OF 3 PM, THE PRELIMINARY
PRECIPITATION AT KSLK HAS SET A NEW RECORD AT 0.64".
DATE KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
03-29 0.82|1888 0.71|1954 0.67|2020 0.84|2020 0.71|2020 0.62|1932
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-
004-005-016.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ009>011-018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-006>008-
017.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>028.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034-035-
087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ031.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DUELL
LONG TERM...DUELL
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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