778
FXUS61 KBTV 301723
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH A BIT OF WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY, CHANGING THE FREEZING RAIN
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. ICY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
WARMER WITH SOME SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDER, AND SHARP RIVER
RISES. THEN WE'LL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1013 AM EDT SUNDAY...LONG STORY SHORT, LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CANCELING ABOUT HALF
OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SO WE WERE ABLE TO BEGIN TRIMMING
HEADLINES AS THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
INTERESTING ENOUGH, WHETHER IT BE SOME 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS ALOFT
OF TREES REBOUNDING AS ICE MELTS, WE HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN POWER
OUTAGES INCREASE ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES FOLLOWING
FREEZING RAIN ENDING AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 30S. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE
RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. IN THESE AREAS, NO NEW IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM FREEZING RAIN.
AS WE HEAD INTO NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 HOURS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. MASSENA IS DOING WHAT IT DOES BEST WHEN WE HAVE
LIVE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IS PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.07
INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION EACH HOUR AND WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST
PLACE IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO SWITCH TO PLAIN RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 3-4 PM. RAIN, AND IN SOME LOCATIONS FREEZING
RAIN, WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A SWATH OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN ON
RADAR, AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE, THIS
WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS FREEZING RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH PERHAPS
SOME SLEET/SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN VT. FLOW IS LIGHT
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY, TURNING FREEZING
RAIN OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. THIS WILL HAPPEN FIRST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE WARMER AIR FUNNELS NORTHWARD UP THE VALLEY, AS WELL AS
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
WARM AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE NORTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF THE
GREENS, AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. THESE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY, SO ANTICIPATE THE VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THERE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT THE ICE STORM
WARNING/WINTER STORM WARNING/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE
CANCELLED PIECEMEAL AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THIS MORNING'S STEADY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
AID IN IMPROVING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCRETION. EASTERN VT, THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH OF ICE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS MOST STUBBORN. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT, HIGHS
WILL BE VERY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY; THE COLD SPOTS WILL
BE LUCKY TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS, AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S, MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S IN PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL AT LEAST HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE. WHILE THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH
CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE MORE FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN EASTERN VT. A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN NORTHWESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL BE WARM AS THE LOW MOVES BY WELL NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC, IT WILL DRAG A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, THE
PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA,
POOR LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM, BUT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS OVER 1+ INCH,
SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW SHARP RISES FROM THIS
RAINFALL ALONG WITH MELT RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
NO MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR FREEZING AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AS WELL,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS, ABOUT
10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE QUIETER
WEATHER AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE NEXT
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BE ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THURSDAY,
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL
PROFILES AT THIS TIME SO THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, MOVING
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY, WITH SEASONABLE AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKING TO
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MAINLY CEILING-DRIVEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN AGAIN AFTER
12Z WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR AT
KMSS, KSLK AND KMPV, WITH SOME INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE AT KRUT
FROM 00-12Z MONDAY. ALSO NOTE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS INTO
THE 40-50 KT RANGE DEVELOPS AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY IMPACT
APPROACHES/DEPARTURES WITH ENHANCED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE SHRA, DEFINITE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOCAL WATERWAYS WILL EXPERIENCE MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES BY LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS BRING THE
EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER AT AUSABLE FORKS AND THE MAD
RIVER AT MORETOWN JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL OTHER
RIVERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH BANKFULL. CRESTS SHOULD GENERALLY
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING HIGHER FLOOD STAGES REMAIN VERY LOW, SO WIDESPREAD,
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN TYPICAL NUISANCE LOWLAND FLOODING AREAS ON THESE
AND OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VERMONT SHOULD MONITOR CURRENT AND FUTURE FORECASTS RELATED TO
THIS EVENT.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-
007.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-
027.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...CLAY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
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