506
FXUS61 KBTV 311130
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF DAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATER TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
BACK TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 721 AM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE, WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES CAN
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL ONLY IN THE 30S, WHILE
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE
ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN 50S. THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY HAS BEEN FUN TO WATCH THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT MASSENA AROUND 35 DEGREES THIS MORNING, WHILE PLACES LIKE
POTSDAM AND OGDENSBURG HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS
LOOKS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR
70 ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RECENT CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME MODEST CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 500 J/KG MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. THIS INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY, SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT NO MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO NEAR FREEZING AFTER SUCH WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN WITHOUT A FRESH SNOWPACK TO HELP RADIATE,
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH SOME OF
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
PERHAPS FLIRTING WITH SINGLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY
WITH SUNSHINE, BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING WARM AIR TO SPREAD OVER COLDER AIR
AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKEWISE LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR AREA. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND
AS THE RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY, SO EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. ONCE PRECIPITATION DOES START, IT WILL INITIALLY START OUT
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL COOL TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING DUE TO
WET BULBING. HOWEVER, AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR ON A 50+ KT 850MB
SOUTHWEST JET WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING WARM NOSE, QUICKLY CHANGING
SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO
PLAIN RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM
AIR FINALLY OVERCOMES THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE THOUGH, THE COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND THESE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW/SLEET, WITH THE ICING TO LINGER THROUGH MID
MORNING THURSDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE, IT WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT AS PROLONGED AS OUR
LAST EVENT. BY THE TIME THE LAST SHELTERED LOCATIONS TURN OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN THURSDAY MORNING, THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY BE COMING TO AN END, TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STILL, GIVEN PWATS NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AMPLE
FORCING, SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE OR
MORE BEFORE TURNING OVER TO RAIN. FRONT SIDE SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE RAPID CHANGEOVER TO A MIX,
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY COMMUTE THURSDAY
MORNING, SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE
THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART OFF TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, LEAVING US UNDER FAST ZONAL FLOW ON THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING US IN A DRY AND
SEASONABLE AIRMASS. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH,
POTENTIALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD HOWEVER, SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, GIVING US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH TERMINALS RANGING FROM
LIFR TO VFR. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN REASON FOR REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS, RANGING FROM 300 FT AGL AT KMPV TO 3000+ FT
AGL AT KPBG AND KRUT, WITH MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY SEEING
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 TO 2800 FT AGL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
LLWS CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BEFORE IMPROVING AFTER 00Z OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE SN, DEFINITE FZRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...RECENT MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WE WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S TOMORROW, THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST
RIVER FORECASTS BRING THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER AT
AUSABLE FORKS AND THE MAD RIVER AT MORETOWN RIGHT TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH BANKFULL AS
WELL. CRESTS SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KREMER
HYDROLOGY...CLAY
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