044
FXUS61 KBTV 291144
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY, BRINGING MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AND A COUPLE OF THESE COULD BE
SEVERE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHARPLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 721 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
AS THE SUN RISES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES, TEMPERATURE AREA
ALREADY STARTING TO RISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA. FIRST
WE'LL HAVE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAVERSE OUR AREA, FOLLOWED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SURFACE INSTABILITY IN OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT'S
LIKELY WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE SEPARATE LINES OF CONVECTION CROSSING
OUR AREA, ONE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH FRONT. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO VERMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE
LESS SURFACE INSTABILITY PRESENT. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR
NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
COINCIDENTALLY WE WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA, THIS WILL LEAD TO BRISK AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS, BOTH SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
HAVE ADDED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN SPOTS THAT HAVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THIS SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO TRULY IMPEDE
THE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DROP ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. AS OUR FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM IS SET TO BEGIN ON MAY
1 FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, IT IS NOTABLE THAT THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE AREAS OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THAT MAY KILL OR DAMAGE SENSITIVE
PLANTS. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE VALLEY.
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AS WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING IN SOME
MILDER AIR AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 60S, A TOUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK MIGHT SEE
A SPRINKLE OR ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT, BUT GENERALLY MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LEADING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SOAR INTO THE 70S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REIGN FOR THIS LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
DURING THE DAY DUE TO WARMTH AND INSTABILITY. HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 300
J/KG MODELED. A WEAK INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT, ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR AND
GENERALLY CUTTING OFF THE MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION, THOUGH THE
ENHANCED FORCING COULD PROVIDE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS PAST THE PEAK OF INSTABILITY AND HEATING.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AS CLOUD
COVERAGE LINGERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND SATURDAY, PRODUCING ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER,
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THAT DAY IN THE GREENS AND
EAST WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SEEMS TO SET UP
AHEAD OF ONE LAST PUSH OF COOLER AIR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS
WILL BOTH BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOUT 30-50% CHANCES
OF 0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS DURING THIS PERIOD. NEXT WEEK, THE
WEATHER LOOKS TO TREND DRIER AND QUIETER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S/LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z, THEREAFTER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF RUT. WINDS ARE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WILL TREND
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS IN THE 15-25
KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
NEAR 30 KNOTS FAVORED AT MSS. MORE LLWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
21Z TO 00Z PERIOD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ACCELERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...NEILES
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