348
FXUS61 KBTV 292008
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHARPLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY, WITH TO SOME SUN BY THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO WARM WELL
INTO THE TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO RISE, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50, WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 AS MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK NEAT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL APART
AS IT MOVES INTO VERMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY
PRESENT. IN ADDITION TO ANY CONVECTIVE WINDS, STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEFORE SHIFTING WESTERLY WITH
THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THE BROADER VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT MAY
SEE A LITTLE LESS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST UP THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND EVENTUALLY UP TO THE WEST OF THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKEWISE PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD, APPROACHING OUR REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL
BE VERY DRY, SO IT WILL BE QUITE A WHILE BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS; EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RAIN TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MAKE IT
INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY, BUT FORCING WILL MAINLY FOCUS WEST AND
THEN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THERE WILL BE
A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET AS WELL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
INVERSION IN PLACE, LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. STILL, THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING
TO HAVE ANOTHER WEEKEND PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY TO WELL NORTH OF THE
GASPE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRAVERSE ALONG IT ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WAVE AND THE FRONT WILL FINALLY
EXIT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING DOWN FROM CANADA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LOW
HANGING AROUND JUST TO OUR EAST, THIS COULD CHANGE. AFTER A WARM DAY
ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD TOWARD
MID WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THEY PASS
OVERHEAD. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL
PRIMARILY BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND EFFECT MOST TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TERMINALS OF KMSS AND KSLK.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS FROM 21Z TO 03Z AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KREMER
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