860
FXUS61 KBTV 292347
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHARPLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY, WITH TO SOME SUN BY THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 739 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 10PM. THE FIRST
BATCH OF STORMS HAS BEEN MOSTLY GARDEN VARIETY. A FEW
OCCASIONALLY HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS, BUT
SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS BEEN JUST AS STRONG TODAY. THERE'S A LINE OF
STORMS WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. WE'RE MONITORING HOW WELL
IT CAN HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER AS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING
TODAY COULD COME FROM THAT. HOWEVER, THE SUN IS SETTING AND
INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO WANE. GENERALLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE, BUT THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO WARM WELL INTO THE TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MUCH
SLOWER TO RISE, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50,
WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 AS MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SPC
CONTINUES TO HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK NEAT THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO
VERMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY PRESENT. IN
ADDITION TO ANY CONVECTIVE WINDS, STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEFORE SHIFTING WESTERLY WITH
THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THE BROADER VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE LESS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST UP THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND EVENTUALLY UP TO THE WEST OF THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKEWISE PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD, APPROACHING OUR REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL
BE VERY DRY, SO IT WILL BE QUITE A WHILE BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS; EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RAIN TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MAKE IT
INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY, BUT FORCING WILL MAINLY FOCUS WEST AND
THEN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THERE WILL BE
A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET AS WELL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
INVERSION IN PLACE, LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. STILL, THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN SOUTH
WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING
TO HAVE ANOTHER WEEKEND PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY TO WELL NORTH OF THE
GASPE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRAVERSE ALONG IT ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WAVE AND THE FRONT WILL FINALLY
EXIT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING DOWN FROM CANADA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LOW
HANGING AROUND JUST TO OUR EAST, THIS COULD CHANGE. AFTER A WARM DAY
ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD TOWARD
MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIFTING EAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
THERE HAVE NOT BEEN TOO MANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BUT
OCCASIONALLY NOTING HEAVIER SHOWERS DROP VISIBILITY TO 1-4SM.
THIS FIRST BATCH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST THROUGH VERMONT FROM
00Z TO 03Z, AND THEN ANOTHER SET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ABOUT 02Z AND RACE EAST BY
ABOUT 06Z. ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE
FRONT, BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
(ABOUT 04Z TO 08Z) WITH WIND SPEEDS 13 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25
TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER KMSS OR KBTV. SOME LOWER
CEILINGS DOWN TO 1800-3000 FT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF
PRECIPITATION CAUSES BRIEF REDUCTION IN THE PREVAILING WINDS,
AND THEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EAST BEYOND 06Z. CLOUDS
GENERALLY SCATTER AFTER 12Z AND TREND CLEAR SOON AFTER.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS 18 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HAYNES
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