074
FXUS61 KBTV 300458
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHARPLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY, WITH TO SOME SUN BY THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND WINDS ARE VEERING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED, THOUGH JUST ONE
REMAINING AREA OF RAIN CROSSING RUTLAND, WINDSOR AND ORANGE
COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO WARM WELL INTO THE TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MUCH
SLOWER TO RISE, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50,
WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 AS MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SPC
CONTINUES TO HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK NEAT THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES INTO
VERMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY PRESENT. IN
ADDITION TO ANY CONVECTIVE WINDS, STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEFORE SHIFTING WESTERLY WITH
THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THE BROADER VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT MAY SEE A LITTLE LESS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. DRIER AND QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FAIRLY IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE,
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND EVENTUALLY UP TO THE WEST
OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
APPROACHING OUR REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY, SO IT WILL BE
QUITE A WHILE BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS; EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO RAIN TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH JUST
INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION
THURSDAY, BUT FORCING WILL MAINLY FOCUS WEST AND THEN NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, SO THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THERE WILL BE
A FAIRLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET AS WELL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
INVERSION IN PLACE, LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. STILL, THURSDAY
NIGHT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S,
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVEN
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 408 PM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE
GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER WEEKEND PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY TO WELL
NORTH OF THE GASPE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE ALONG IT ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WAVE AND THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN FROM
CANADA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRIER WEATHER
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LOW
HANGING AROUND JUST TO OUR EAST, THIS COULD CHANGE. AFTER A WARM
DAY ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE
HEAD TOWARD MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA,
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
(THROUGH 08Z) WITH WIND SPEEDS 13 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25 TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER KMSS OR KBTV. SOME LOWER
CEILINGS DOWN TO 1800-3000 FT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF
PRECIPITATION CAUSES BRIEF REDUCTION IN THE PREVAILING WINDS,
AND THEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EAST BEYOND 09Z. CLOUDS
GENERALLY SCATTER AFTER 12Z AND TREND CLEAR SOON AFTER.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS 18 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NEILES
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