643
FXUS61 KBTV 300757
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS SURFACE COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST OF THE REGION SHARPLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST
OF OUR REGION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END.
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY, AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TONIGHT
WILL LED TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
OUR FROST FREEZE PROGRAM BEGINS ON MAY 1 FOR THAT AREA. ON
THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM, WE WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT DRAWING WARM,
MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
EXIST IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION, LIKE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NEW YORK COULD LEAD TO SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, OTHERWISE, MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET ALLOWS FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS
15-25 KNOTS TO REACH DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH AN INVERSION
WILL MAKE MIXING A CHALLENGE. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
JAY PEAK IN VT, UP TO ABOUT A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE WE'LL SEE PERHAPS A HUNDREDTH TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE'RE
ANTICIPATING TONIGHT, AND WILL EVEN BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWEST TEMPS WILL
LINGER EAST OF THE GREENS WHILE MILDER AIR ARRIVES FIRST IN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY ON
FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. THE WARM FRONT AND
CONTINUALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO
THE 70S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERING THROUGH THIS WARM,
UNSTABLE AIR FROM WEST TO EAST WILL TRIGGER SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT WHERE MODELED CAPE VALUES
ARE HIGHEST, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL EVERYWHERE. HIGHEST
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WITH UP TO
0.20-0.40", ELSEWHERE UNDER 0.20", AND AS LOW AS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS FOR SOME IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WITH PROFILES A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ATMOSPHERIC MIXING ON FRIDAY, WINDS COULD
GUST UP TO 20-30 KNOTS AT TIMES, HIGHER ON MOUNTAINTOPS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A RESURGENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION POINT TO SOUTHEASTERN
VERMONT AS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ABOUT 30-50% CHANCE OF 0.50" OR
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THERE. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING, BUT GENERALLY IT APPEARS WE MAY BE HEADING INTO A
DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SOON AFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE 50S/60S LOOK TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK
SLIGHTLY, BRUSHING THE 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
OF THE BUNCH AS SOME MODELS PROJECT COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE LAST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. LOWS MAY BE IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA,
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
(THROUGH 08Z) WITH WIND SPEEDS 13 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25 TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER KMSS OR KBTV. SOME LOWER
CEILINGS DOWN TO 1800-3000 FT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF
PRECIPITATION CAUSES BRIEF REDUCTION IN THE PREVAILING WINDS,
AND THEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EAST BEYOND 09Z. CLOUDS
GENERALLY SCATTER AFTER 12Z AND TREND CLEAR SOON AFTER.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS 18 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ028-035.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...NEILES
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