502
FXUS61 KBTV 010218
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1018 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1016 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVERHEAD, AND EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT, THEY HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SO THE CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. TEMPERATURE HAVE BEEN DROPPING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, AND THE USUAL COLD SPOT OF SARANAC LAKE IS ALREADY
BELOW FREEZING. THE REST OF THE REGION IS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
AND LOW 40S, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
DECREASE. OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE SO FEW
EDITS WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT'S BEEN A COOL BUT SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD TREND LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND EVEN IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON STARTS MAY 1ST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.25 INCHES IN MOST PLACES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 328 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE'S BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING, AND EXPECT THERE'LL BE SOME
SHOWERS ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY TO OUR NORTH, THE COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PERHAPS EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE ALONG A ROUGHLY LINE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHEAST KINGDOM. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE REALLY
DECREASES; BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF A
SHALLOW LAYER AROUND 850 MB OR 2500 FT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A ROUND OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT MAKING
MORE OF A PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION, WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRIER
AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT/STALLS, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. GIVEN THESE CHANGES, HAVE GONE IN BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS, REDUCING POPS TO JUST 30-50% RATHER THAN THE
60-80% WE WERE ADVERTISING EARLIER. SHOULD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS COME
TRUE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, KEEPING MORE OF OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS, RANGING
FROM AROUND 70F TO THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT, THERE COULD BE CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE IT STALLS. OTHERWISE, IT'LL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 328 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR STREAK OF WET WEEKENDS ALIVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST SPOTS, PERHAPS
SOME LOW 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS IF THEY CAN STAY OUT OF THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS. FORTUNATELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRIER, THOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW/WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES. CONSENSUS HAS THE
NORTHERN WAVE JUST SKIRTING US BY WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING WELL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIG INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE HOLD BY MID WEEK, BUT AGAIN, MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW POTENTIALLY KEEPING
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR REGION, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FOR SUN-MON GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BEGIN NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING DECOUPLES SURFACE WINDS FROM THOSE ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR DRAINAGE FLOW TO TAKE OVER FOR BTV/RUT WHILE OTHER
TERMINALS GO LIGHT TO CALM. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT RETURNS, EXCEPT
AT MSS, AFTER 14Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-035.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...BOYD
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