985
FXUS61 KBTV 010514
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 112 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.25 INCHES IN MOST PLACES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 328 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE'S BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING, AND EXPECT THERE'LL BE SOME
SHOWERS ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY TO OUR NORTH, THE COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PERHAPS EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE ALONG A ROUGHLY LINE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHEAST KINGDOM. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE REALLY
DECREASES; BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF A
SHALLOW LAYER AROUND 850 MB OR 2500 FT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A ROUND OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT MAKING
MORE OF A PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION, WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRIER
AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT/STALLS, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. GIVEN THESE CHANGES, HAVE GONE IN BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS, REDUCING POPS TO JUST 30-50% RATHER THAN THE
60-80% WE WERE ADVERTISING EARLIER. SHOULD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS COME
TRUE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, KEEPING MORE OF OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS, RANGING
FROM AROUND 70F TO THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT, THERE COULD BE CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE IT STALLS. OTHERWISE, IT'LL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 328 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR STREAK OF WET WEEKENDS ALIVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST SPOTS, PERHAPS
SOME LOW 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS IF THEY CAN STAY OUT OF THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS. FORTUNATELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRIER, THOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW/WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES. CONSENSUS HAS THE
NORTHERN WAVE JUST SKIRTING US BY WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING WELL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIG INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE HOLD BY MID WEEK, BUT AGAIN, MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW POTENTIALLY KEEPING
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR REGION, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FOR SUN-MON GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR DRAINAGE FLOW
TO TAKE OVER FOR BTV/RUT WHILE OTHER TERMINALS GO LIGHT TO
CALM. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT RETURNS, EXCEPT AT MSS, AFTER 14Z WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LLWS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002-005-
009.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER/MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...NEILES
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