747
FXUS61 KBTV 010741
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 325 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY, BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF TODAY, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AND SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY,
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIFT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, THEN CROSSING NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL HAVE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT,
AND RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, BUT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM EDT THURSDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AND
STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ONLY UP TO
0.05 INCHES AT MOST, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS,
BUT THINKING IT WILL BE COOLER FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, AND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF VERMONT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SATURDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BRINGING EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S WITH
WARMER TEMPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT
0.20-0.40" THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. HIGHEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VERMONT. WE'LL SEE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING LONGEST IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND 0.10-0.30".
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST, DROPPING LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER
NEXT WEEK AS WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY RELENTLESSLY DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WAVES OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT, THEN WE HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
70S, GENERALLY TRENDING UPWARDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WILL ALSO TREND UPWARDS FROM MID 30S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR DRAINAGE FLOW
TO TAKE OVER FOR BTV/RUT WHILE OTHER TERMINALS GO LIGHT TO CALM.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT RETURNS, EXCEPT AT MSS, AFTER 14Z WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LLWS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002-005-
009.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...NEILES
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