529
FXUS61 KBTV 011805
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PUT AN END TO REGIONWIDE DRY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN ENSUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE CHANGES WERE NECESSARY WITH THIS
UPDATE OUTSIDE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENSURE THE FORECAST
REFLECTS LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 714 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED OUR
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY, BUT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
MOST OF TODAY, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL LIFT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY, THEN CROSSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. WILL HAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT, AND RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, BUT
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 325 AM EDT THURSDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AND
STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ONLY UP TO
0.05 INCHES AT MOST, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS,
BUT THINKING IT WILL BE COOLER FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, AND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF VERMONT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SATURDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BRINGING EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S WITH
WARMER TEMPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT
0.20-0.40" THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WITH UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. HIGHEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VERMONT. WE'LL SEE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING LONGEST IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND 0.10-0.30".
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST, DROPPING LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 325 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER
NEXT WEEK AS WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY RELENTLESSLY DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WAVES OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT, THEN WE HAVE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
70S, GENERALLY TRENDING UPWARDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WILL ALSO TREND UPWARDS FROM MID 30S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...TAFS WILL BE VFR FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. MSS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND LOWER
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND WE WILL ALSO HAVE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL. WE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE PERIOD IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NWS ALBANY
NEAR TERM...NEILES/NWS ALY
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...NEILES
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