093
FXUS61 KBTV 020741
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN ENSUES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THEN QUEBEC TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY
AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW PRESSURE. THIS, COMBINED WITH BEING IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, WILL ALLOW OUR AREA TO SEE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE BEING MODELED AROUND 300-900 J/KG
ACROSS VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING UP
TO 1200 J/KG IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE
PROJECTIONS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES 7.5-8.0 C/KM,
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PARTICULARLY GUSTY, THOUGH WE ARE NOT FORECASTING SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME AS BUOYANCY POTENTIAL IS NOT FAVORABLE AND THE EXPECTED
INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT EXTREME.
WINDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TODAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 MB WHICH IS MODELED AT 40-50 KNOTS. WE CAN EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 30-35 KNOTS TO ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST, AND LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AXIS OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER AS STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEADED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO REMAINS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL BE PUSHING VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS LONG AS THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY,
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. AT THIS TIME, MODELS
START TO MOVE THIS LOW EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK, THEN
OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WAITING FOR THAT UPPER LOW TO
FINALLY PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT A DRIER
DAY, AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...LLWS CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET SITS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT,
IN SHARP CONTRAST WITH WINDS JUST ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SO HAVE LLWS
IN THE TAFS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z-18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES 4 MILES OR HIGHER, AND WE
ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SOMETIME TOMORROW BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
ALSO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD
ONLY REACH ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OR HIGHER,
BRIEFLY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT 15Z-19Z
OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TO
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...STORM
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