006
FXUS61 KBTV 021422
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN ENSUES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1013 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MID
MORNING UPDATE. HRLY TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER BASED ON
MORE CLOUDS, BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEL
ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CPV OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS
CONDITIONAL BASED ON LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 70S WL BE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT, WITH DWPTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THIS ENVIRONMENT CREATES SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES IN THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG, WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION, SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LIMITED CONVERGENCE WITH JUST A WEAK TROF LIKE FEATURE
MOVING ACRS CENTRAL VT THRU 21Z INTERACTING WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WE PLAN TO INVESTIGATE THE 12Z DATA AND WL
RUN OUR IN-HOUSE SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST TO FURTHER EXAMINE
THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING. OTHERWISE, FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN QUEBEC TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW PRESSURE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WILL ALLOW OUR AREA TO SEE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE BEING MODELED AROUND 300-900 J/KG
ACROSS VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING UP
TO 1200 J/KG IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE
PROJECTIONS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES 7.5-8.0 C/KM,
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PARTICULARLY GUSTY, THOUGH WE ARE NOT FORECASTING SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME AS BUOYANCY POTENTIAL IS NOT FAVORABLE AND THE EXPECTED
INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT EXTREME.
WINDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TODAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 MB WHICH IS MODELED AT 40-50 KNOTS. WE CAN EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 30-35 KNOTS TO ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST, AND LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AXIS OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER AS STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEADED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO REMAINS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL BE PUSHING VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS LONG AS THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY,
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. AT THIS TIME, MODELS
START TO MOVE THIS LOW EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK, THEN
OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WAITING FOR THAT UPPER LOW TO
FINALLY PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT A DRIER
DAY, AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUSTING UP TO ABOUT 15-25 KNOTS. TODAY
WILL BE BREEZY OVERALL, WITH MSS THE SITE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION, VIS 4 MILES OR HIGHER, THIS MORNING, BUT
THEY SHOULD BECOME FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE DIPPING TO ABOUT 1500-3000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL THIS MORNING, BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF, RETURNING
TO VFR LEVELS BY ABOUT 18Z. BY THIS TIME OF DAY, WE'LL SEE AN
END TO THE LLWS THREAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BREAK IN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME POTENTIAL
SUNSHINE MAY AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...STORM
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