776
FXUS61 KBTV 021728
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS. A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN ENSUES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 116 PM EDT FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR IS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE HIGH PEAKS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE CPV IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH SOME
UPWARD GROWTH POSSIBLE, AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. LATEST LAPS
SHOWS SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS INCREASING TO 200 TO 500 J/KG IN
POCKETS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND THE SOUTHERN CPV. AS MORE BREAKS
DEVELOP AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S, SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
WL CLIMB INTO THE 800-1200 J/KG, WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BTWN 20-23Z. A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MINIATURE BOW LINE SEGMENTS, GIVEN
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS. HOWEVER, THE
LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WL
KEEP CONVECTION FROM TURNING THE CORNER AND BECOMING SVR. WE WL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY FOR A FEW POTENTIAL SPS TYPE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTN OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE, MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE POPS BASED ON CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE HIGH PEAKS, INCREASED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
OVER THE SLV, AS HAMMOND/MASSENA HAVE BOTH GUSTED TO NEAR 40
MPH, AND LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE NEK WHERE VALUES ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 50S ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN QUEBEC TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW PRESSURE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WILL ALLOW OUR AREA TO SEE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE BEING MODELED AROUND 300-900 J/KG
ACROSS VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING UP
TO 1200 J/KG IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE
PROJECTIONS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES 7.5-8.0 C/KM,
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PARTICULARLY GUSTY, THOUGH WE ARE NOT FORECASTING SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME AS BUOYANCY POTENTIAL IS NOT FAVORABLE AND THE EXPECTED
INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT EXTREME.
WINDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TODAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 MB WHICH IS MODELED AT 40-50 KNOTS. WE CAN EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 30-35 KNOTS TO ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST, AND LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AXIS OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER AS STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 341 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEADED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO REMAINS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL BE PUSHING VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG AFOREMENTIONED STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS LONG AS THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY,
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. AT THIS TIME, MODELS
START TO MOVE THIS LOW EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK, THEN
OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WAITING FOR THAT UPPER LOW TO
FINALLY PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT A DRIER
DAY, AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL BE PRIMARY THREAT FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN, ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN
NY. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES, EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z TODAY, WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MPV/RUT. PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
THESE TWO SITES IS BTWN 25-35%, WITH LESS POTENTIAL AT
BTV/PBG/SLK/EFK THRU THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE, LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT MSS THRU 22Z, BEFORE WEAKENING SUNSET.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU MIDNIGHT, THEN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR OCCURS AT MOST SITES BTWN 10-14Z ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME MTN TAF SITES TRENDING TOWARD IFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...TABER
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