214
FXUS61 KBTV 021952
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH INTERVALS OF SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETELY
WASHOUT WITH PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. LITTLE CHANGE
IN OUR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA, WITH WEAK EMBEDDED S/W OVER
THE CPV ATTM. THIS S/W ENERGY IS INTERACTING WITH JUST ENOUGH SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONT TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH POSSIBLE, GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF VT.
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER
RUTLAND COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN ADDISON COUNTY THIS AFTN. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY, A WEAK MINIATURE BOWING
LINE SEGMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THRU 22Z, BUT
PROBABILITY OF SVR IS <10%. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVER NORTHERN NY
THIS AFTN WITH MALONE GUSTING TO 45 MPH AND HAMMOND TO 42 MPH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING S/W AND
SHOWERS WL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED S/W OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WL
QUICKLY RACE TOWARD OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS S/W ENERGY WL RIDE
ALONG A TIGHTENING THERMAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS OUR CWA TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ANGLING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACRS OUR
CWA BTWN 10Z AND 20Z ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE REGION
OF UPPER LVL JET OCCURS AT 18Z SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN THE
HIGHEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BTWN 0.10 TO
0.25 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE NORTH TO SOUTH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA, WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAINLY OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MORE CHALLENGING, AS SFC HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH
CHC/LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND SCHC/CHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WITH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE FRONT WILL SET UP EXACTLY, BUT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL SEASONABLE,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS, WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WETTEST DAY SO FAR. CURRENT
NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.5 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD, WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING IT
FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT, ALTHOUGH THAT MAY LIKELY CHANGE. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET MILD GIVEN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL BE PRIMARY THREAT FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN, ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN
NY. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES, EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z TODAY, WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL AT MPV/RUT. PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
THESE TWO SITES IS BTWN 25-35%, WITH LESS POTENTIAL AT
BTV/PBG/SLK/EFK THRU THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE, LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT MSS THRU 22Z, BEFORE WEAKENING SUNSET.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU MIDNIGHT, THEN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR OCCURS AT MOST SITES BTWN 10-14Z ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME MTN TAF SITES TRENDING TOWARD IFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...TABER
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