940
FXUS61 KBTV 030508
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH INTERVALS OF SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETELY
WASHOUT WITH PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. LITTLE CHANGE
IN OUR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH
THIS UPDATE. SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM A TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH LOOK TO BE CLIPPING WINDSOR COUNTY, BUT LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA, WITH WEAK EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE CPV ATTM.
THIS S/W ENERGY IS INTERACTING WITH JUST ENOUGH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONT
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH POSSIBLE, GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF
VT. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG OVER RUTLAND COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN ADDISON COUNTY THIS AFTN.
GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY, A WEAK
MINIATURE BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VT THRU 22Z, BUT PROBABILITY OF SVR IS <10%. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTY OVER NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN WITH MALONE GUSTING TO 45 MPH
AND HAMMOND TO 42 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING S/W AND
SHOWERS WL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED S/W OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WL
QUICKLY RACE TOWARD OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS S/W ENERGY WL RIDE
ALONG A TIGHTENING THERMAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS OUR CWA TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ANGLING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACRS OUR
CWA BTWN 10Z AND 20Z ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING AND FAVORABLE REGION
OF UPPER LVL JET OCCURS AT 18Z SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN THE
HIGHEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BTWN 0.10 TO
0.25 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE NORTH TO SOUTH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACRS OUR CWA, WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAINLY OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MORE CHALLENGING, AS SFC HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH
CHC/LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND SCHC/CHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE FRONT WILL SET UP EXACTLY, BUT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS, WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WETTEST DAY SO FAR. CURRENT
NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.5 INCHES FOR TUESDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD, WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING IT
FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT, ALTHOUGH THAT MAY LIKELY CHANGE. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD GIVEN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED. STARTING AROUND 12Z, WE COULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN
TO ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES 4 MILES OR HIGHER AND ACCOMPANIED
BY CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500-3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL FOR A PERIOD. SOME SPOTS COULD EXPERIENCE HEAVIER RAIN AND
SUBSEQUENT VISIBILITIES 1-2 MILES, BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS WILL BE SLK, MPV, AND
RUT AROUND 15Z ONWARD. CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL OF CIGS
500-1000 FEET AT THESE SAME SITES, THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ANY SITES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, OFTEN OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...STORM
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