064
FXUS61 KBTV 040731
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SOME DRY WEATHER NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S, EXCEPT MID 60S OVER THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. THE UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO COASTAL MAINE THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE
CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY, CONTINUING TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE CENTRAL
VERMONT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, THEN BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO UP TO
0.20-0.40", HIGHEST IN THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF NEW YORK AND
WESTERN VERMONT COULD MISS OUT ON ANYTHING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
SHOWERS GET, BUT WE CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH THE IDEA OF MID 60S IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE OTHER, RAINIER
SPOTS SEE TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT, PRESSING MOST
LIKELY PRECIP AREA INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT, THOUGH SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE
QUITE THE DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS CAN REACH
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 0.01-0.55" OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND A BIT IN SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY, NEW YORK.
LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WE CONTINUE TO SEE MORE
STALLING FROM ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES TOMORROW AND DRY AIR PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT AGAIN IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDY
WEATHER AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, ONLY
AIDING IN ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF 30-50% CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH IN 24 HOURS
OVERFLOW INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO FEWER
SHOWERS, WITH ELSEWHERE ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 0.01-
0.15".
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY TRACK NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS DAY'S DECAYING CONVECTION WILL ARC ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY AVOIDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE AS RAIN LIFTS NORTH, WHICH REVERSES BY MID-
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FIRES TO OUR SOUTH AND LIFTS NORTH. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT EAST FROM
BEFORE. FROM AN INGREDIENTS PERSPECTIVE, THERE ARE SOME FAVORABLE
SIGNALS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
BUT ONLY SEEM MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. IT'S
STILL WORTH MONITORING HOW THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES, BUT IT STILL
SEEMS WE MAY BE ONLOOKERS TO HEAVIER RAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. NBM
AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY (HIGHER THAN 50%)
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE AT LEAST ABOVE AN INCH FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS, AND STILL ABOUT 10-20% FOR UP TO 2 INCHES. BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, IF WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT SOME,
925HPA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 10-12 C. SO WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE, 60S TO A FEW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, IT
APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BASED ON WANING DIURNAL CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, ONCE THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR VICINITY WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TAKE OVER. ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS POISED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST AND MAY JUST CLOSE OFF INTO ANOTHER UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR, SOME SUMMIT LEVEL
SNOW COULD BE IN THE CARDS.
BEYOND THAT, A COOL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. IT COULD EVEN BE DRY! NBM
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS AROUND 10-20 PERCENT, WHICH IS
BELOW THE CLIMO 40%. ONE ASPECT TO THIS WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE
CAN GET, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER LOW IS ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING. RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW 36 READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. SO
THIS IS A HEADS-UP TO OUR GARDENERS TO WATCH THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, CEILINGS RANGE FROM 200-9000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM 1-9 MILES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP AND DOWN IN TERMS OF FLIGHT RULES INTO THE
DAY TODAY, SO USED PLENTY OF TEMPOS IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS LEAN
TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER FOR ALL BY AROUND 07Z-13Z
EXCEPT AT MSS, WHICH APPEARS TO MISS MOST OF THE RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS, STAYING VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST OR FOG AT MSS, THOUGH
WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO AVOID THIS.
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE PREDICTED BY ABOUT 13Z-14Z AS THE
NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING SITES LIKE MPV AND RUT WILL STAY IN IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT AT THIS POINT IT'S MORE
LIKELY FOR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND 22Z FOR
MPV AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PUSH SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...STORM
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...STORM
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