061
FXUS61 KBTV 230626
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SUMMIT SNOW TONIGHT TO PORTIONS OF VERMONT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TO MAINTAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. A DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM STRETCH WILL
BEGIN ON MEMORIAL DAY AS A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM RECENT WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1017 PM EDT THURSDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY WITH
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN VERY
LIGHT, BUT CONSISTENT WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE GREENS
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE SNOW
LEVELS POTENTIALLY LOWER SOME OVER THE GREENS; SOME WEBCAMSA
DECREASE IN SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2500-3000FT. SHOULD A HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENT ROLL THROUGH, SNOW LEVELS MAY DRAG
MARGINALLY LOWER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED NOR'EASTER IS SPINNING
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE 40 DEGREES NORTH, 70 DEGREES WEST
BENCHMARK. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST EAST OF DUE WEST TONIGHT,
ARRIVING NEAR NANTUCKET TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE BY DAYBREAK. A STRONG EASTERLY JET ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK
COMBINED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IS SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WILL GO. HAVE LARGELY CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS; MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS RAINFALL RATES IN VERMONT WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH STORM TOTALS UNDER 1" EVEN IN SOUTHEASTERN
VERMONT.
THAT BEING SAID, HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH 0.25"/HOUR
OR GREATER RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY, AND THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS ARE HINT AT SOME CHANCES FOR PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN EAST
OF THE GREENS TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT
THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. SNOW LEVELS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
COME DOWNWARDS A BIT. HOWEVER, AS EVIDENT AT KILLINGTON PEAK
WEBCAMS TODAY WHERE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW HAS FALLEN, MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE
SNOWFALL BELOW 3000 FEET EVEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT. MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (2500 TO 3000 FEET ELEVATION) INTO
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. SOME OF THE PEAKS SHOULD SEE SNOW MIX WITH
RAIN, BUT IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION.
IT IS FORTUNATE THAT THE AIR MASS ISN'T A BIT COLDER, OR WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WE WOULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH EFFECTS
OF SNOW LOADING AND WIND. HIGH ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL SEE MODERATELY STRONG EAST WINDS, UPWARDS
OF 40 MPH, DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
SHARPLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL JUST
BE CLOUDY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF WEST
OF THE GREENS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THESE DAYS, QUITE FRANKLY, LOOK
TERRIBLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WE WILL SEE UNUSUALLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THICK CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND A POCKET
OF COLD AIR ALOFT THAT WILL SPIN ACROSS THE REGION, FINALLY
PULLING AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS. THE MOST UNPLEASANT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WILL
LIKELY BE SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
A BIT AS SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO RISE FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH
THE CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH, STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S AND
LARGELY ELEVATIONALLY-DEPENDENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 301 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL AND WET FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
ALONG WITH THE LOW, BUT A WEAK POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GEFS AND GEPS CONTINUE
TO TREND A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN
HINTING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MEMORIAL DAY. IF THERE IS
ANY SOLACE FOR THE HOLIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND
WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. GUIDANCE BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY HAS
BEEN TRENDING PRIMARILY ZONAL, HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
BUILDING A BRIEF RIDGE IN FOR TUESDAY AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH A REX BLOCK LOOKING TO DEVELOP. MODELS DEVELOP A
HIGH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ABOVE THE TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST, LEADING TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL FOR US THIS MEANS
GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID TO END WEEK, WITH ANY SYSTEMS
STAYING SOUTH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ALBEIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL EXIST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE HOW LOW CEILINGS GET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO DEPICT CLOUD BASES LOWER THAN
OBSERVATIONS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL STORM, RUT AND MPV MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS WITH MORE SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS, BUT
ALSO WOULD EXPECT AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY, CEILINGS WILL ALSO COME DOWN AT SITES LIKE
BTV AND SLK WITH LOW CHANCES (<35%) OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS, EXCEPT AT MSS WHEN SOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FAVORED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z, LEADING TO MORE LIKELY IFR
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ALONG WITH SOME BR AND NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...BOYD/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF/MYSKOWSKI
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