162
FXUS61 KBTV 230759
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COMBINATION OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY, LEADING INTO A WEEK WITH MORE TYPICALLY
WARM WEATHER. WELCOME DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 359 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERIODS OF COLD RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO FORCING FOR
RAIN IN OUR REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT AND
PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE COASTAL LOW AND BE
PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. THEN
THIS AFTERNOON, POPS AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE AND PEAK IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH RAIN BEING FAVORED WITH A COMBINATION
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
CROSSING THE REGION, AND DEEP MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE
COASTAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN MAINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY THAT
IS TYPICAL DURING THE WINTER MONTHS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS, SO WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, IT WILL BE A
GOOD SOAKER RATHER THAN A STEADY GENTLE RAIN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
ON SATURDAY THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS GREATER DURING THE DAY, WITH SOME
STEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TO 850 MILLIBAR LAPSE RATES AND
SATURATED PROFILES WELL ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN, HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED WITH BLOCKED
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIBBONS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
PINWHEELING SOUTHWARD. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
THEREFORE WILL TEND TO BE FROM THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK MAY SEE PERSISTENT RAIN. THROUGH SATURDAY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0.2" TO 0.5" IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH LEAST RAINFALL PROBABLY IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY STEADY WITH SUBTLE WARMING AHEAD
OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN A BIT
OF COOLING TONIGHT AS WINDS TREND MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE AIR
MASS ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TOUCH LESS COLD, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S;
CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
OF THE AFD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. CAN'T
REALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS THOUGH, UNFORTUNATELY, AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
TAKES ITS TIME MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST TEN
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES WILL BOTH BUILD OVER OUR AREA, AND THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT LATE
IN THE WEEK, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME, WILL CROSS THE AREA
BRINGING NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE HOW LOW CEILINGS GET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO DEPICT CLOUD BASES LOWER THAN
OBSERVATIONS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL STORM, RUT AND MPV MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS WITH MORE SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS, BUT
ALSO WOULD EXPECT AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY, CEILINGS WILL ALSO COME DOWN AT SITES LIKE
BTV AND SLK WITH LOW CHANCES (<35%) OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS, EXCEPT AT MSS WHEN SOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FAVORED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z, LEADING TO MORE LIKELY IFR
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ALONG WITH SOME BR AND NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY IN PARTICULAR CHANCES ARE HIGH TO
SEE AT LEAST ONE OR MORE CLIMATE SITES RECORD A DAILY LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE:
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-23 49|1917 53|1990 45|1997 49|1963 49|1963
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
CLIMATE...KUTIKOFF
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