051
FXUS61 KBTV 231402
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1002 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COMBINATION OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY, LEADING INTO A WEEK WITH MORE TYPICALLY
WARM WEATHER. WELCOME DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 956 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST VT
WHERE RADAR RETURNS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE PAST HOUR.
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING A BIT LESS PRONOUNCED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/EASTERN ADIRONDACKS, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE THINGS TO
BLOSSOM AGAIN TOWARD AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
40S, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHERN VT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
AT THIS HOUR. WARMING WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY, PERHAPS JUST A FEW
DEGREES, SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES
COULD POTENTIALLY SET NEW DAILY RECORDS FOR COOL MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES; SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FULL DETAILS.
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PERIODS OF COLD RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS PEAKING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO
FORCING FOR RAIN IN OUR REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
INTERMITTENT AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE
COASTAL LOW AND BE PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. THEN THIS AFTERNOON, POPS AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE AND
PEAK IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH RAIN BEING FAVORED WITH A
COMBINATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST CROSSING THE REGION, AND DEEP MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THE COASTAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN MAINE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY THAT IS TYPICAL DURING THE WINTER MONTHS WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS, SO WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, IT WILL BE A GOOD SOAKER RATHER THAN A STEADY GENTLE RAIN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ON SATURDAY THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS GREATER DURING THE DAY, WITH SOME
STEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TO 850 MILLIBAR LAPSE RATES AND
SATURATED PROFILES WELL ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN, HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED WITH BLOCKED
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIBBONS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
PINWHEELING SOUTHWARD. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
THEREFORE WILL TEND TO BE FROM THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK MAY SEE PERSISTENT RAIN. THROUGH SATURDAY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0.2" TO 0.5" IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH LEAST RAINFALL PROBABLY IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY STEADY WITH SUBTLE WARMING AHEAD
OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN A BIT
OF COOLING TONIGHT AS WINDS TREND MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE AIR
MASS ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TOUCH LESS COLD, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S;
CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
OF THE AFD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. CAN'T
REALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS THOUGH, UNFORTUNATELY, AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
TAKES ITS TIME MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST TEN
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES WILL BOTH BUILD OVER OUR AREA, AND THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT LATE
IN THE WEEK, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME, WILL CROSS THE AREA
BRINGING NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE CLOUD BASES THAT WILL TEND TO LOWER OVER TIME
WITHIN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. AS ANTICIPATED, SLK AND RUT ARE
EARLIEST TO LOWER BELOW 1000 FEET, BUT SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AT
BTV AND MPV COULD RESULT IN PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING AS WELL. FOLLOWING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z, WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
PATCHY BR/FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AT MOST SITES. WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIGHT BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KNOTS, AND WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY IN PARTICULAR CHANCES ARE HIGH TO
SEE AT LEAST ONE OR MORE CLIMATE SITES RECORD A DAILY LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE:
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-23 49|1917 53|1990 45|1997 49|1963 49|1963
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
CLIMATE...KUTIKOFF
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