070
FXUS61 KBTV 231733
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COMBINATION OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY, LEADING INTO A WEEK WITH MORE TYPICALLY
WARM WEATHER. WELCOME DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH ARE NOW PIVOTING SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED, RAIN IS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50F, AND DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH, IF ANY, WARMING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HAS THIS PRETTY MUCH COVERED, BUT
DID INCREASE POPS TO MATCH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PERIODS OF COLD RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS PEAKING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO
FORCING FOR RAIN IN OUR REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
INTERMITTENT AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE
COASTAL LOW AND BE PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. THEN THIS AFTERNOON, POPS AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE AND
PEAK IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH RAIN BEING FAVORED WITH A
COMBINATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST CROSSING THE REGION, AND DEEP MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THE COASTAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN MAINE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY THAT IS TYPICAL DURING THE WINTER MONTHS WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS, SO WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, IT WILL BE A GOOD SOAKER RATHER THAN A STEADY GENTLE RAIN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ON SATURDAY THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS GREATER DURING THE DAY, WITH SOME
STEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TO 850 MILLIBAR LAPSE RATES AND
SATURATED PROFILES WELL ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN, HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED WITH BLOCKED
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIBBONS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
PINWHEELING SOUTHWARD. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
THEREFORE WILL TEND TO BE FROM THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK MAY SEE PERSISTENT RAIN. THROUGH SATURDAY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0.2" TO 0.5" IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH LEAST RAINFALL PROBABLY IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
GREENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY STEADY WITH SUBTLE WARMING AHEAD
OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN A BIT
OF COOLING TONIGHT AS WINDS TREND MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE AIR
MASS ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TOUCH LESS COLD, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S;
CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
OF THE AFD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. CAN'T
REALLY RULE OUT SHOWERS THOUGH, UNFORTUNATELY, AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
TAKES ITS TIME MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST TEN
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES WILL BOTH BUILD OVER OUR AREA, AND THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT LATE
IN THE WEEK, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME, WILL CROSS THE AREA
BRINGING NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CEILINGS, WHICH AFTER HAVING DROPPED TO
IFR AT MANY TERMINALS EARLIER TODAY, ARE NOW PRIMARILY MVFR.
STILL, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 00Z SAT, AND
PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KRUT, KEFK, AND
KSLK. AFTER 00Z, WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
BR/FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AT MOST SITES, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO 5-6SM IN RAIN/FOG. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY N/NW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY IN PARTICULAR CHANCES ARE HIGH TO
SEE AT LEAST ONE OR MORE CLIMATE SITES RECORD A DAILY LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE:
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-23 49|1917 53|1990 45|1997 49|1963 49|1963
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HASTINGS
CLIMATE...KUTIKOFF
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