096
FXUS61 KBTV 240156
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COMBINATION OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HELP PRODUCE
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD ON
SUNDAY, LEADING INTO A WEEK WITH MORE TYPICALLY WARM WEATHER.
WELCOME DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 954 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVERGENCE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER
THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE EAST AND MULTIPLE
ASSOCIATED VORTS ARE HELPING TO INCREASE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THATS RUNNING UP AGAINST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE RAIN IS BEING HELPED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVERHEAD AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THESE CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY COMBINE BUT THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT
COULD SEE A COUPLE DRY PERIODS ARE PARTS THE IMMEDIATE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS
POINT. OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FEW EDITS WERE
NEEDED.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF OUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE. WE STILL LIE BETWEEN TO
UPPER LOWS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT THESE WILL GRADUALLY
CONGEAL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH THE LOW CENTER THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD ME/NB BY LATER SATURDAY.
TWO MAIN AREAS OF RAIN CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THE UPPER LOWS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE
TROUGHS. AS THESE COME TOGETHER, EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. COVERAGE
SHOULD THEN WANE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS FORCING
BECOMES A BIT MORE AMORPHOUS. STILL, EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN AS WE SEE
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. FLOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, SO EXPECT THERE COULD BE AN OROGRAPHIC ELEMENT AS
WELL, WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND SO SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LEVEL,
THOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE/FEW OF INCHES
AT MOST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY, IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING EVEN MORE TIED TO THE NORTHWEST SLOPES AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 303 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS A CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, LIKELY REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRIER AND QUIETER AS THE RULING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND DRIER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND IT. BECAUSE OF THIS,
LOWS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 303 PM EDT FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING SEASONABLY WARM AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE THE PATTERN, PRODUCING DRIER
WEATHER THAN WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S, LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AS
WELL AS SUNNY SKY EXPECTED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. EARLY IN
THE WEEK, SKIES COULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR SOME VALLEY FOG OR EVEN
ISOLATED FROST IT TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE LATE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST AS CIGS
CONTINUE TO JUMP BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR/VFR ACROSS MANY OF OUR
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES, BASED ON CURRENT
OBS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION HAVE TEMPO'D
IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK AND EFK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
BEFORE STARTING PREVAILING GROUPS AROUND 03Z. FOR BTV/PBG/RUT
AND MSS HAVE MOSTLY MVFR/VFR SLOWLY BECOMING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR,
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING. ONCE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOP BY
06Z, THEY SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING, GIVEN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, UNDER MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION. VIS MOSTLY IN THE VFR RANGE WITH INTERVALS
OF MVFR 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS. CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A
MIX OF MVFR VALLEYS TO IFR/MVFR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES BY NOON TIME
ON SATURDAY WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE NOT NECESSARILY YET BEEN REACHED, A
COUPLE OF SITES, KPBG AND KMPV, WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. ADDITIONAL RECORDS COULD BE SET
TOMORROW, AS WELL.
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-23 49|1917 53|1990 45|1997 49|1963 49|1963
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...KUTIKOFF
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