268
FXUS61 KBTV 240618
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COMBINATION OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HELP PRODUCE
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD ON
SUNDAY, LEADING INTO A WEEK WITH MORE TYPICALLY WARM WEATHER.
WELCOME DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 218 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF OUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE. WE STILL LIE BETWEEN TO
UPPER LOWS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT THESE WILL GRADUALLY
CONGEAL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH THE LOW CENTER THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD ME/NB BY LATER SATURDAY.
TWO MAIN AREAS OF RAIN CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THE UPPER LOWS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE SURFACE
TROUGHS. AS THESE COME TOGETHER, EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. COVERAGE
SHOULD THEN WANE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS FORCING
BECOMES A BIT MORE AMORPHOUS. STILL, EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN AS WE SEE
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. FLOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, SO EXPECT THERE COULD BE AN OROGRAPHIC ELEMENT AS
WELL, WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND SO SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LEVEL,
THOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE/FEW OF INCHES
AT MOST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY, IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING EVEN MORE TIED TO THE NORTHWEST SLOPES AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 303 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS A CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, LIKELY REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRIER AND QUIETER AS THE RULING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND DRIER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND IT. BECAUSE OF THIS,
LOWS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 303 PM EDT FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING SEASONABLY WARM AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE THE PATTERN, PRODUCING DRIER
WEATHER THAN WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S, LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AS
WELL AS SUNNY SKY EXPECTED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. EARLY IN
THE WEEK, SKIES COULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR SOME VALLEY FOG OR EVEN
ISOLATED FROST IT TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE LATE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST
CONTINUES AS CIGS JUMP BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR/VFR AT MANY TAF
SITES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST HREF/HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM MEAN CLOUD
BASE FORECAST IS CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE,
AND IN COMBINATION WITH LAMP IFR PROBABILITY TRENDS, HAVE
CONTINUED A MIX OF PREVAILING AND TEMPORARY IFR AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT MSS AND PBG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION, INCREASING PREVALENCE OF LOW IFR TOWARDS 12Z IS
REASONABLE. ASIDE FROM EFK WHERE DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED, VISIBILITIES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM WITH
PERHAPS INTERMITTENT BR. CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR
VALLEYS TO IFR/MVFR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES BY NOON ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
KPBG AND KMPV HAVE BROKEN RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR 5-23 BASED ON PRELIMINARY HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
RECORDS COULD BE SET TODAY, 5-24, AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV.
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-24 49|1928 49|1992 43|1917 51|1956 48|1956
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF/TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page