469
FXUS61 KBTV 240805
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED OUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
WHILE BRINGING MORE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TODAY. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, AS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY, SUNNY, AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 356 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE ARE PLAYING THE SAME TUNE TODAY
AS YESTERDAY FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL BE WET, INCLUDING
PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN, AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY
WEATHER IS GUARANTEED. DISORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL
PINWHEEL IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE OLD COASTAL LOW,
NOW STALLED OUT JUST EAST OF NORTHERN MAINE. TIMING OF STEADIER
SHOWERS VERSUS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GETTING INTO BETTER FOCUS
AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM FAIRLY
CONSISTENT, WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMIDST STEEPER
700-500 MILLIBAR LAPSE RATES PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PIVOTING TOWARDS
VERMONT, SUCH THAT NORTHEASTERN VERMONT SHOULD SEE PERIODIC
SOAKING RAIN BY MID- MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RAIN GENERALLY
ARE DURING THE MID- AFTERNOON AND EVENING; LIKE YESTERDAY,
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
REGARDLESS OF SMALL DIFFERENCES IN POP ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REACH BEGIN TO CLIMB A BIT AFTER
REACHING THEIR NADIR THIS MORNING, ENOUGH SO THAT EVEN MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY EVENING. VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF STEADIER RAIN IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG WITH A COOL START TO THE DAY FAVORS SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, WHICH WILL ALSO
PROVIDE MORE UPSLOPE GENERATED LOW CLOUDS/FOG. EXPECT MISTY OR
FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PATCHES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE.
WITH LOW OVERCAST SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE DAMP WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT TOO FAR OFF OF SATURDAY'S HIGHS. AS SUCH, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THINNING CLOUDS, IT WILL WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS EVEN IF THE AIR MASS REMAINS CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE STEEPEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS AND STILL 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA, AND WE'LL FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN
THIS PERIOD ALSO. FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FINALLY BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN, RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE MORE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THERE WILL
BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST
CONTINUES AS CIGS JUMP BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR/VFR AT MANY TAF
SITES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST HREF/HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM MEAN CLOUD
BASE FORECAST IS CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE,
AND IN COMBINATION WITH LAMP IFR PROBABILITY TRENDS, HAVE
CONTINUED A MIX OF PREVAILING AND TEMPORARY IFR AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT MSS AND PBG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION, INCREASING PREVALENCE OF LOW IFR TOWARDS 12Z IS
REASONABLE. ASIDE FROM EFK WHERE DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED, VISIBILITIES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM WITH
PERHAPS INTERMITTENT BR. CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR
VALLEYS TO IFR/MVFR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES BY NOON ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
KPBG AND KMPV HAVE BROKEN RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR 5-23 BASED ON PRELIMINARY HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
RECORDS COULD BE SET TODAY, 5-24, AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV.
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-24 49|1928 49|1992 43|1917 51|1956 48|1956
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
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