262
FXUS61 KBTV 241733
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED OUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
WHILE BRINGING MORE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TODAY. LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, AS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY, SUNNY, AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED, AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, BUT NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AREAWIDE, AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HAS THIS ALL COVERED
AND REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE ARE PLAYING THE SAME TUNE TODAY AS
YESTERDAY FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL BE WET, INCLUDING PERIODS
OF STEADIER RAIN, AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER IS
GUARANTEED. DISORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PINWHEEL IN FROM
THE NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE OLD COASTAL LOW, NOW STALLED OUT
JUST EAST OF NORTHERN MAINE. TIMING OF STEADIER SHOWERS VERSUS
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GETTING INTO BETTER FOCUS AS UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT, WITH A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMIDST STEEPER 700-500 MILLIBAR
LAPSE RATES PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PIVOTING TOWARDS VERMONT, SUCH THAT
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SOAKING RAIN BY MID-
MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RAIN GENERALLY ARE DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; LIKE YESTERDAY, COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD REGARDLESS OF SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN POP ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
REACH BEGIN TO CLIMB A BIT AFTER REACHING THEIR NADIR THIS
MORNING, ENOUGH SO THAT EVEN MOUNTAIN SUMMITS THAT HAVE SEEN
SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SWITCH OVER TO RAIN BY EVENING.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR YESTERDAY'S HIGHS,
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF STEADIER RAIN IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH
A COOL START TO THE DAY FAVORS SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES. IT
WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZIER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE, WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE MORE UPSLOPE GENERATED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. EXPECT MISTY OR FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PATCHES THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE.
WITH LOW OVERCAST SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE DAMP WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT TOO FAR OFF OF SATURDAY'S HIGHS. AS SUCH, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THINNING CLOUDS, IT WILL WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS EVEN IF THE AIR MASS REMAINS CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE STEEPEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS AND STILL 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA, AND WE'LL FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN
THIS PERIOD ALSO. FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FINALLY BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN, RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FEATURE MORE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THERE WILL
BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. CEILINGS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN 1500+ FT, WHILE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 3-6SM IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WANES AFTER 00Z AND ESPECIALLY
04Z, BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT KMSS MAY SCATTER OUT, WITH LOCALIZED
LIFR IN FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK/KMPV/KEFK, AND SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THOSE
SITES WHILE LEAVING OUT AT KMSS. CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR AFTER 14Z SUN. N/NW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH 00Z WILL
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 5 KT AFTER 14Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
KPBG AND KMPV HAVE BROKEN RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR 5-23 BASED ON PRELIMINARY HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
RECORDS COULD BE SET TODAY, 5-24, AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV.
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
DATE KBTV KPBG KSLK KMSS KMPV
05-24 49|1928 49|1992 43|1917 51|1956 48|1956
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HASTINGS
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
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